Core Insights - Long-term contract rates for the dry van truckload market have decreased by 0.3% year-over-year as of early September, indicating a loss of momentum compared to previous years [1] - The average cost of operating a truck has increased by approximately 33% from 2019 to 2024, while contract rates have only risen by 17% during the same period, highlighting a disparity in cost versus revenue growth [1] Group 1: Contract Rates and Market Dynamics - The current flatlining trend in contract rates suggests that carriers have largely established a pricing floor, limiting long-term cost-saving opportunities for shippers with a limited carrier base [2] - Contract rates had previously shown signs of upward pressure in the latter half of the previous year, but those gains have now been completely erased [1] Group 2: Spot Rates and Pricing Floors - Spot rates are gradually increasing, while contract rates remain flat or slightly lower, indicating that the spot market represents the true pricing floor where operational efficiencies have been maximized [4] - The divergence between spot and contract rates is notable, with spot rates offering discounts for those willing to purchase capacity on demand [4] Group 3: Market Composition and Carrier Attrition - Spot data is primarily derived from brokers targeting smaller fleets and owner-operators, while contract data is based on invoices from larger fleets and major shipping operations, explaining the lower spot rates [6] - The market has been losing 100-200 carriers per week over the past 18 months, with the actual figure likely being higher due to reporting delays, contributing to the upward pressure on spot rates [7]