Core Insights - Long-term contract rates for dry van truckload transportation have remained stable, increasing only about 1% since July 2024, while short-term spot rates have risen approximately 4% over the same period [1][2] - Despite seasonal pressures expected during the holiday shipping season, demand remains weak, and there is little evidence to suggest a significant increase in contract rates [2][3] - The freight recession has lasted longer than any in modern history, with capacity exiting the market faster than demand is declining, which is unprecedented [3][4] Rate Dynamics - Spot rates have been rising since 2023 but remain largely unprofitable, while contract rates are near the lowest sustainable levels for most carriers [4][5] - The average operating costs for carriers have increased by 33% from 2019 to 2024, while the contract rate index is only 16% higher than its 2019 level, indicating that operating costs have risen at a faster rate than what the market is willing to pay [5] Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions targeting non-domiciled and undocumented drivers have intensified, with plans to crack down on "CDL mills" and the fleets that utilize them [6] - Increased regulatory pressure has begun to affect the rate environment, with spot rates spiking unseasonably in early October due to reports of immigrant drivers avoiding the roads amid heightened enforcement [6]