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赣锋锂业-025 年上半年业绩低于预期;对锂价持谨慎态度;维持 H 股评级为中性,建议卖出
2025-08-26 01:19
Summary of Ganfeng Lithium Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$62.5 billion / $8.0 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$107.1 billion / $13.7 billion - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically lithium production Key Financial Results - **1H25 Performance**: - Net loss of Rmb536 million, or loss per share of Rmb0.266, compared to a net loss of Rmb759 million in 1H24 [1] - Recurring net loss of Rmb442 million, down from a positive recurring profit in 1H24 [1] - Total revenue decreased by 13% year-over-year to Rmb8.3 billion, 19% below estimates [25] - Gross profit of Rmb890 million, down 16% year-over-year and 30% lower than estimates [26] Pricing and Sales - **Lithium Pricing**: - Realized ASP for lithium hydroxide was US$7,942/t in 1H25, 13% below expectations [25] - Realized ASP for lithium carbonate was US$8,606/t in 1H25, down 32% year-over-year [37] - **Sales Volume**: - Lithium compound sales volume was 8% below estimates, with a significant drop in realized ASP contributing to lower revenue [25] Earnings Revisions - **2025E Earnings**: Recurring earnings cut by 28% due to lower realized ASP for lithium hydroxide and lower sales volume [2] - **2026-27E Earnings**: Revised up by 12-44% due to: 1. Lower production costs for integrated projects [2][23] 2. Higher self-sufficiency in spodumene supply [2][23] 3. Increased battery profit from new ESS plant operations [2][23] Industry Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - Recent supply disruptions from China are expected to support spot lithium carbonate prices [2] - Global excess capacity poses risks to current spot prices, which are 39% above the bottom in June [2] Valuation Analysis - **Target Prices**: - Revised 12-month price targets to HK$28.00 and Rmb30.50, down from HK$19.00 and Rmb21.40 [18][32] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Bottom-of-the-cycle valuation suggests a theoretical valuation of Rmb18.4/share at a spot lithium carbonate price of US$10.5k/t-LCE [2] - Current share price is HK$30.8/share for H and Rmb38.3/share for A [2] Risks - **Key Risks Identified**: 1. Fluctuations in lithium product prices [33][34] 2. Project execution risks [33][34] 3. Raw material purchase risks [33][34] 4. Policy risks affecting EV adoption [33][34] 5. Currency and country risks related to overseas assets [33][34] Operational Metrics - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow declined by 92% year-over-year to Rmb300 million in 1H25 [29] - Free cash flow remained negative at Rmb1.9 billion [29] - **Balance Sheet**: - Net gearing increased to 73% by the end of 1H25, up from 64% at the end of 2024 [29] Conclusion - Ganfeng Lithium's performance in 1H25 was below expectations, primarily due to lower lithium prices and sales volumes. The company is adjusting its earnings forecasts for the coming years while navigating significant market risks and operational challenges. The revised target prices reflect a cautious outlook amid ongoing industry volatility.