The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose by +0.11%.  The dollar moved higher on Tuesday amid short covering ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which ends on Wednesday.  The dollar gained ground on Tuesday after the Oct JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.  The dollar's near-term upside is limited amid expectations that the Fed will cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. President Trump said last that he w ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday rose by +0.09%.  The dollar shook off early losses on Monday and moved higher due to a jump in T-note yields, which strengthened the dollar’s interest rate differentials.  The dollar’s near-term upside is limited amid expectations that the Fed will cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. Also, strength in EUR/USD on Monday weighed on the dollar due to hawkish ECB comments. President Trump said last that he will announce ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.11%.  The dollar shook off early losses today and moved higher to a jump in T-note yields, which strengthened the dollar’s interest rate differentials.  The dollar’s near-term upside is limited amid expectations that the Fed will cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. Also, strength in EUR/USD today is weighing on the dollar due to hawkish ECB comments. President Trump said last that he will announce his selecti ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell by -0.50% and posted a 5-week low.  The dollar was undercut by Wednesday’s weak Nov ADP report, which was dovish for Fed policy and cemented expectations for a Fed rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. The dollar failed to find support from Wednesday’s Nov ISM services index, which unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high. President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026.  Bloomberg reported last week that Nationa ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.38% at a 5-week low. The dollar was undercut by today’s weak Nov ADP report, which was dovish for Fed policy.  The dollar recovered from its worst level today after the Nov ISM services index unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high. President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026.  Bloomberg reported last week that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell. ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) fell slightly by -0.08% on Tuesday due to a decline in T-note yields and reduced liquidity demand for the dollar as stocks strengthened [1] - The swaps market indicates a 96% chance of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10, which is bearish for the dollar [1][5] - The OECD raised its US 2025 GDP forecast to +2.0% from +1.8%, which provided some support for the dollar [2][4] Group 2 - President Trump is expected to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as a likely candidate, which could be bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance [3] - The euro (EUR/USD) rose by +0.12% as it recovered from early losses, supported by a stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI and the OECD's raised Eurozone GDP estimate [6]

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up slightly by +0.05%.  Higher T-note yields today are supportive of the dollar as the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1.5-week high at 4.11%.  Also, today’s action by the OECD to boost its US 2025 GDP forecast was supportive for the dollar.  Strength in stocks today is limiting gains in the dollar as it reduces liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar is being undercut by expectations for a rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, as the swaps market now discounts a 96% c ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell to a 2-week low and finished down by -0.05%.  The yen’s strength is weighing on the dollar on Monday after BOJ Governor Ueda signaled a possible interest rate hike at this month’s policy meeting.  Also, Monday’s weaker-than-expected Nov US ISM manufacturing index is bearish for the dollar.  In addition, the dollar is under pressure amid expectations for a Fed rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, as the swaps market now discounts a 96% chance of a rate cut at the Dec ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.33% at a 2-week low, influenced by the strength of the yen and expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - The US Nov ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -0.5 to a 4-month low of 48.2, weaker than the expected increase to 49.0, indicating economic contraction [3] - The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Leadership Speculation - The dollar is under pressure due to speculation regarding Kevin Hassett as a potential candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as US Fed Chair, which is seen as bearish for the dollar [2] - Hassett's nomination could raise concerns about Fed independence, as he supports President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and ECB Policy - The EUR/USD is up by +0.32% at a 2-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and hawkish comments from ECB officials [4] - ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that Eurozone interest rates are currently in a good place, indicating a divergence in central bank policies [4][5] - The Eurozone Nov S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to 49.6, marking the steepest pace of contraction in 5 months [5]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index fell to a 1.5-week low, finishing down by -0.08% due to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - Swaps markets now indicate an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10, up from 30% last week [3] Group 2: Potential Fed Chair Nomination - The dollar is under pressure following reports that Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, which is viewed as bearish for the dollar due to Hassett's dovish stance [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The euro rose by +0.05% as it recovered from early losses, supported by increased inflation expectations in the Eurozone and stronger-than-expected German CPI [4] - Eurozone's October 1-year inflation expectations increased to +2.8% from +2.7% in September, contrary to expectations of a decline [5] - German October retail sales unexpectedly fell by -0.3% month-over-month, which was weaker than the anticipated +0.2% increase [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen Performance - The yen rose by -0.12% amid better-than-expected Japanese industrial production and retail sales reports, with the November Tokyo CPI remaining above 2%, indicating a hawkish outlook for BOJ policy [6]