The dollar index (DXY00) dropped to a 2-week low on Tuesday and finished down by -0.79%.  The dollar retreated on Tuesday as President Trump's push to take over Greenland is reviving fears of trade confrontations between the US and its European allies, with little sign of de-escalation. Overnight, President Trump threatened steep tariffs on French champagne after French President Macron ruled out joining a US-led peace initiative.  There are also fears that rising tensions in Greenland could prompt Europe ...

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Friday gave up an early advance, fell to a 6-week low, and finished down by -0.08%. Friday's dollar strength weighed on the euro. The euro initially moved higher on Friday after ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said he's comfortable with the ECB's monetary policy settings.The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts liquidity in the financial system, having begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills in mid-December. The dollar is also being undercut by concerns that President ...

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.17%, reaching a 4-week high, driven by positive US economic news [1] - US job cuts in December fell by -8.3% year-over-year to 35,553, marking a 17-month low, indicating a supportive factor for the labor market [2] - Weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +8,000 to 208,000, which was better than the expected 212,000, suggesting a stronger labor market [3] - Q3 non-farm productivity rose by +4.9%, close to the expected +5.0%, representing the largest increase in 2 years [3] - Q3 unit labor costs fell by -1.9%, a larger decline than the expected -0.1% [3] - The US trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$29.4 billion, significantly better than the expected widening to -$58.7 billion, marking the smallest deficit in 16 years [3] Market Expectations - Markets are currently pricing in a 12% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28 [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] Dollar Dynamics - The dollar is under pressure due to the Fed's liquidity boost, having started to purchase $40 billion a month in T-bills since mid-December [5] - Concerns regarding President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair are also bearish for the dollar, with Kevin Hassett being the most likely candidate [5] Eurozone Impact - The EUR/USD pair fell to a 4-week low, down by -0.03%, influenced by the strength of the dollar and unexpected declines in Eurozone economic confidence [6] - Easing producer price pressures in the Eurozone, following the steepest decline in 13 months, are seen as dovish for ECB policy, further weighing on the euro [6]

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday rose by +0.11%.  The dollar recovered from early losses on Wednesday and moved higher after Dec ISM services index unexpectedly expanded at its fastest pace in 14 months.  The dollar also rose amid increased safe-haven demand after the US seized a Russian-flagged tanker for sanctions violations. The dollar initially moved lower on Wednesday on signs of weakness in the US labor market after the Dec ADP employment report showed private employers added fewer jobs than e ...

The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 1-week high on Wednesday and finished up by +0.07%.  The dollar moved higher on Wednesday as T-note yields rose after weekly US unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 1-month low, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. Also, the weakness in stocks on Wednesday boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar. Questions about the Fed's independence are limiting gains in the dollar after President Trump said Monday evening that he "still might" fire Fed Chair Powell.  Also, ...

The dollar index (DXY00) is down -0.30%, falling back from last Friday's 1-week high.  The dollar continues to see underlying weakness as the FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 bp in 2026, while the BOJ is expected to raise rates by another +25 bp in 2026, and the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged in 2026. The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts liquidity in the financial system, having begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills in mid-December.  The dollar is als ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.09%.  The dollar recovered from early losses today and turned higher as Eurozone fiscal concerns weighed on EUR/USD.  The dollar also found some support today after US weekly jobless claims fell as expected.  The dollar initially moved lower today due to the weaker-than-expected US reports on the Nov CPI, and the Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, which may prompt the Fed to keep easing monetary policy.  Also, strength in stocks today has curbed liquidi ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday fell to a 2.25-month low and finished down -0.21%.  The dollar was under pressure from Tuesday's Fed-friendly US economic reports on Nov payrolls, Oct retail sales, and Dec S&P manufacturing activity that bolster the outlook for the Fed to keep easing monetary policy. The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts liquidity in the financial system, having begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, effective last Friday.  Finally, the dollar is also being und ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.28% and slid to a 2.25-month low.  The dollar is under pressure from today's Fed-friendly US economic reports on Nov payrolls, Oct retail sales, and Dec S&P manufacturing activity that bolster the outlook for the Fed to keep easing monetary policy. The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts liquidity in the financial system and began purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills effective last Friday.  Finally, the dollar is also being undercut by concern ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index rose by +0.11% amid short covering ahead of the FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 bp cut in the federal funds target range [1][3] - The unexpected rise in October JOLTS job openings to 7.670 million, a 5-month high, indicates a stronger labor market, which is a hawkish factor for Fed policy [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - President Trump plans to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as the likely candidate [2] - Hassett's nomination is viewed as bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance and support for President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and German Trade Data - The euro fell by -0.05% against the dollar, influenced by the dollar's strength and weaker-than-expected German trade news [4] - German October exports rose by +0.1% m/m, below expectations of +0.2% m/m, while imports fell by -1.2% m/m, weaker than the anticipated -0.5% m/m [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen Performance - The yen declined by +0.60% against the dollar, reaching a 2-week low due to comments from BOJ Governor Ueda regarding bond yields [6] - The stronger-than-expected US October JOLTS job openings report contributed to higher T-note yields, further pressuring the yen [6]