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APA(APA) - 2025 H2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-20 00:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - FY 2025 EBITDA increased by 6.4% to over $2 billion, marking the first time APA has achieved annual earnings above this threshold [14][15] - Underlying EBITDA margins expanded to 74.2%, supported by stronger operating results and corporate cost growth below inflation [15] - Free cash flow rose by 1% to nearly $1.1 billion, reflecting higher underlying earnings despite increased funding costs and cash tax payments [15][17] - Distribution for FY 2025 was $0.57 per security, up $0.01 from the previous year, with guidance for FY 2026 set at $0.58 per security [8][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The organic growth pipeline increased from $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion, indicating strong momentum in growth initiatives [6][46] - On the East Coast, increased demand for seasonal capacity and inflation-linked tariff escalations contributed to higher earnings [15] - The Pilbara Energy assets drove strong growth in contracted power generation earnings, aligning with expectations [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for gas power generation (GPG) is expected to grow significantly, with AEMO forecasting a need for 13 gigawatts of new GPG investment as coal retires [32][41] - Domestic gas supply is not a constraint, with over 68,000 petajoules of 2P reserves and 2C resources available in Eastern Australia [35][36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on energy infrastructure supported by long-term, inflation-linked contracts, emphasizing gas transmission and storage as core growth areas [50][31] - Recent divestments, including the non-core networks business, aim to simplify operations and enhance focus on high-return projects [13][27] - The strategy includes addressing regulatory risks and ensuring the Southwest Queensland pipeline avoids heavy regulation to facilitate expansion [12][45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to fund the organic growth pipeline from existing balance sheet capacity without the need for ordinary equity raisings [24][25] - The outlook for FY 2026 is strong, with expected EBITDA growth of 7.2% and ongoing distribution growth anticipated for the twenty-second consecutive year [8][26] - Management highlighted the importance of regulatory and policy certainty to support domestic gas supply and infrastructure development [83][84] Other Important Information - The company has reaffirmed its climate transition targets and is committed to reducing emissions while supporting energy transition initiatives [11][32] - A comprehensive enterprise-wide cost reduction initiative is underway, targeting approximately $50 million in savings for FY 2026 [5][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the asset classes and specific opportunities that are expanding to fill the void in the growth outlook? - Management confirmed that the strategy remains unchanged, focusing on energy infrastructure supported by long-term contracts, despite the removal of focus on larger electricity transmission projects [50] Question: Are discussions with shippers indicating a willingness to sign long-term contracts for East Coast grid expansions? - Management indicated that while long-term contracts are not expected as in the past, demand remains strong, and they are working with customers to secure the necessary support for investments [52][53] Question: How does the organic growth pipeline fit into the future earnings outlook? - Management clarified that they are not trying to replace earnings from the Wallumbilla Gladstone pipeline but are focused on overall business growth and distribution increases [56] Question: Can you provide insights on the growth CapEx for gas power generation? - Management acknowledged supply chain challenges for major equipment but expressed confidence in their relationships with suppliers to manage these effectively [62] Question: What is the status of the Baloo interlink project? - Management confirmed that the Baloo interlink is part of the East Coast Gas Grid expansion, with a target for final investment decision in FY 2026 [68][69]