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再鼎医药_收益回顾_尽管efgar反弹,第二季度仍未达标;全市场关注下半年营收表现;评级买入-Zai Lab (ZLAB)_ Earnings Review_ 2Q miss despite efgar rebound; all eyes on 2H revenue delivery; Buy
2025-08-08 05:02
Summary of Zai Lab (ZLAB) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Zai Lab (ZLAB) - **Industry**: Biotechnology Key Financial Highlights - **2Q25 Product Revenue**: US$109.1 million, a 9% year-over-year increase, but below expectations (Goldman Sachs estimate: US$125.6 million) [1] - **Zejula Revenue**: US$41 million, down 17% quarter-over-quarter and 9% year-over-year, compared to Goldman Sachs estimate of US$50.1 million [1] - **Augtyro Revenue**: US$1.4 million, down 14% quarter-over-quarter, significantly below Goldman Sachs estimate of US$5.9 million [1] - **Efgartigimod Revenue**: US$26.5 million, a 46% quarter-over-quarter increase, slightly below Goldman Sachs estimate of US$29.5 million [1] Management Guidance - **FY25 Revenue Guidance**: Reiterated at US$560-$590 million, with non-GAAP profitability expected in 4Q25 [1] - **Sales Growth Expectations**: Management anticipates accelerated sales growth in 2H25 despite a lower-than-expected performance in 1H25 [2] Operational Efficiency - **Operating Loss**: Non-GAAP operating loss narrowed to US$34 million, down 8% quarter-over-quarter and 37% year-over-year [2] - **SG&A Costs**: US$71 million, down 11% year-over-year, indicating disciplined spending [2] - **R&D Expenses**: US$51 million, down 18% year-over-year, with expectations for modest growth in R&D investment towards 2H25 [2] Key Catalysts and Upcoming Events - **NMPA Approvals**: Key products to watch include KarXT for schizophrenia and TIVDAK for r/m CC post-chemotherapy [7] - **BLA Submissions**: Planned submissions for bemarituzumab in 1L gastric cancer and Optune in 1L pancreatic cancer [7] - **Data Readouts**: Expected updates from pivotal studies and clinical trials in 2H25 and early 2026 [7] Valuation and Price Target - **Price Target**: Adjusted to US$56.30 (previously US$56.94) for ZLAB and HK$43.88 (previously HK$44.38) for Zai Lab (H) [8] - **EPS Estimates**: Adjusted for FY25E-FY27E from -US$1.7/-US$1.4/-US$1.2 to -US$1.7/-US$1.2/-US$1.1 [8] Investment Thesis - **Transition Strategy**: Zai Lab is shifting from a licensing-in based model to a dual engine focusing on in-house and licensing opportunities globally [9] - **Market Potential**: The company has a strong pipeline with 10+ high-quality assets expected to generate significant revenue by 2028 [9] - **Risks**: Key risks include fluctuations in licensing deals, supply chain disruptions, uncertainties in drug pricing, and potential delays in clinical or regulatory progress [10] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Buy rated, with a favorable risk/reward profile due to the company's strategic transition and growth potential in the biotechnology sector [9][10]