Core Insights - Pending sales of existing US homes stalled in September, indicating buyer anxiety due to job market concerns despite lower mortgage rates [1][3] - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the index of contract signings remained at 74.8, with a previous month increase of 4.2% [2] - NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that a record-high stock market and increased housing wealth were insufficient to counteract a softening job market [3] Market Trends - Mortgage rates are trending towards three-year lows, which may enhance affordability, although a potential government shutdown could hinder home sales activity [3] - The "lock-in effect," where homeowners hesitate to sell due to low-rate mortgages, is diminishing, contributing to increased inventory [4] - A national measure of home prices rose by 1.5% in August year-over-year, marking the smallest annual gain since mid-2023 [4] Regional Performance - Contract signings for previously owned homes increased by 1.1% in the South, reaching the highest level since March, while pending sales rose in the Northeast but fell in the West and Midwest [5] - The new-home sales market showed significant momentum, surging in August to the highest level since 2022, driven by builders offering price cuts and sales incentives [5] Leading Indicators - Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as contracts typically occur one to two months before sales [6]