Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (Ticker: ZTO US / 2057 HK) - **Industry**: Logistics and Express Delivery in China - **Market Position**: Largest express parcel provider in China with approximately 20% market share as of 2Q25 [44][49] Key Points and Arguments 1. Improved Financial Outlook - **Price Target Increase**: Price targets raised to US$24 for ZTO US ADR and HK$187 for ZTO H-share, reflecting a 27% and 29% upside potential respectively from current levels [1][57] - **Management Confidence**: A marked shift in management's tone indicates greater confidence in the sustainability of price hikes due to the anti-involution campaign and improved regulatory enforcement [1][57] 2. Anti-Involution Campaign Impact - **Regulatory Changes**: The anti-involution campaign has reshaped industry dynamics, moving the sector from volume-driven competition to margin-focused discipline [3][39] - **Price Stability**: Local authorities are actively stabilizing prices and preventing undercutting, which has led to improved profitability across the network [3][39][58] 3. Financial Performance Metrics - **Profitability Gains**: The Guangdong price hike resulted in an increase of approximately RMB 0.3 per parcel at the front-end, translating to RMB 0.025-0.03 at the group level [5][39] - **Volume Growth Expectations**: Management expects parcel volume growth of 14-18% year-over-year for FY25, targeting 38.8-40.1 billion parcels [6][59] 4. Short-Term Challenges - **Net Profit Projections**: Expected non-GAAP net profit for 3Q25 is RMB 2.17 billion, down approximately 9% year-over-year, and for FY25, projected at RMB 8.8 billion, down 13% year-over-year [7][59] - **Volume Headwinds**: The moderation in volume growth is attributed to price increases affecting low-price parcels, but the network remains robust with ongoing investments in automation and fleet expansion [6][59] 5. Competitive Landscape - **Shift in Competition**: The competitive landscape is evolving from aggressive volume growth to maintaining pricing power and outlet profitability [11][12] - **ASP Resilience**: Recent data from Tongda peers indicates a focus on average selling price (ASP) stability, with some companies sacrificing market share for stronger margins [13][14][58] 6. Long-Term Strategy - **Sustainable Growth**: Outlets are collaborating more closely with headquarters on cost reduction and quality improvement, indicating a shift towards sustainable growth practices [10][39] - **Market Adaptation**: ZTO is maintaining flexibility to adapt to shifting competitive dynamics while focusing on direct customer business growth through differentiated pricing and service quality [6][59] Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Support**: The broad adoption of anti-involution measures across major provinces signals a persistent and expanding regulatory support for price stability [8][39] - **Management's Optimism**: The tone of management has shifted from cautious to optimistic, reflecting greater clarity about the industry's direction and ZTO's ability to navigate the new competitive landscape [12][58] Conclusion ZTO Express is positioned for potential growth driven by improved pricing discipline and regulatory support, despite facing short-term volume challenges. The company's strategic focus on profitability and sustainable practices is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the logistics market.