Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is estimated between 45% and 60%, influencing investment strategies [1] - Two stocks identified as potential buying opportunities during a recession are Ferrari and BYD [1] Group 2: BYD's Market Position and Strategy - BYD dominates China's new energy vehicle (NEV) market with nearly 30% market share as of March, significantly ahead of its closest competitor at 11.2% [3] - The company expects to double its international sales to approximately 800,000 units by 2025, despite not yet entering the U.S. market [3] - BYD's vertical integration and in-house component production lead to lower battery costs, providing a competitive advantage [4] - The transition to electric vehicles positions BYD favorably for future growth, even if a recession temporarily slows its progress [4] Group 3: Ferrari's Business Model and Resilience - Ferrari is characterized as an ultra-luxury automaker with strong brand power, pricing power, and impressive margins [5] - The super-wealthy demographic that purchases Ferrari vehicles is less affected by economic downturns, ensuring consistent demand [5] - Ferrari maintains exclusivity through a strict ownership process and limited vehicle deliveries, resulting in wait lists extending beyond two years [6] - The company’s vehicle deliveries are projected to grow in the mid to single digits annually, with improving margins due to strong pricing power [7] - Ferrari's margins are significantly higher than its peers and are on an upward trend, indicating durable competitive advantages [9] Group 4: Future Growth Potential - BYD is well-positioned for continued expansion in the EV market, with potential growth opportunities in the U.S. [10] - Ferrari's exceptional business attributes and improving margins make it a sound investment, especially if a recession leads to a lower valuation [11]

Group 1: Economic Context - Current odds of a U.S. recession are estimated between 45% to 60%, influenced by trade policy uncertainty and potential global growth slowdown due to U.S. tariffs [1] - The auto industry is highlighted as having recession-resilient stocks [1] Group 2: Ferrari - Ferrari is recognized for its racing heritage and ultra-luxury vehicles, with stock gains that outperform industry peers and the S&P 500 [2][4] - The consumer base for Ferrari consists of high earners who can afford to purchase vehicles even during economic downturns, leading to long waiting lists and strict resale policies [5] - Ferrari maintains limited sales volume to ensure demand exceeds supply, which supports pricing power and provides flexibility during economic downturns [6] - The company has high profit margins akin to ultra-luxury brands, with new models like the F80 generating significant interest and sales [7][8] Group 3: AutoZone - AutoZone operates in a countercyclical industry, where demand for auto parts increases as consumers opt to repair rather than replace vehicles during economic downturns [9] - The company has a robust distribution model with over 7,000 stores across the U.S., Mexico, and Brazil, carrying a wide range of SKUs [11] - AutoZone has significantly reduced its shares outstanding through buybacks over the past decade, enhancing shareholder value [12] - The company is expected to remain resilient amid tariff issues, as consumers prioritize vehicle maintenance [12] Group 4: Investment Implications - Owning stocks like AutoZone and Ferrari, which have durable business models and competitive advantages, could provide resilience during economic downturns [14] - Investors are encouraged to keep AutoZone and Ferrari on their watch list regardless of economic conditions or tariff developments [14]