Ford model e (electric vehicles)

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Buy, Sell or Hold F Stock? Key Insights Ahead of Q1 Earnings
ZACKSยท 2025-05-01 15:00
Core Viewpoint - Ford is expected to report breakeven EPS and automotive revenues of $35.5 billion for Q1 2025, reflecting an 11% decline from the previous year [1][3]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's full-year automotive revenues in 2025 is $162.3 billion, indicating a 6% year-over-year decline [3]. - The consensus estimate for full-year EPS is $1.22, representing a 33.7% contraction compared to the previous year [3]. - In the trailing four quarters, Ford surpassed EPS estimates twice, missed once, and matched once, with an average earnings surprise of 1.21% [3]. Sales Performance - Ford's sales volume for Q1 2025 is projected to decline by 1.3% to 501,291 units, attributed to rental fleet sales timing and the discontinuation of certain models [5]. - Retail sales increased by 5% during the quarter, while sales of electrified vehicles surged by 25.5% to 73,623 units [5]. Segment Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Ford Blue unit is $17.6 billion, down 19% year-over-year, with EBIT expected to drop from $905 million to $275 million [8]. - Revenues from the Ford model e unit are estimated at $1.5 billion, a significant increase from $115 million in the same period last year, with a projected loss before interest and taxes of $1.17 billion [9]. - The Ford Pro unit's revenues are expected to be $16.2 billion, reflecting a 10% decline year-over-year, with EBIT anticipated to decrease from $3 billion to $1.5 billion [10]. Market Performance - Year-to-date, Ford's shares have increased by 1.1%, outperforming both Tesla and General Motors, whose shares have dropped by 30% and 15%, respectively [11]. - Ford is trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 0.24, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.37, indicating a relatively cheap valuation [14]. Future Outlook - Ford's 2025 outlook is cautious, with full-year adjusted EBIT forecasted at $7-$8.5 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2024, influenced by warranty costs and incentives [18]. - Despite challenges, the Ford Pro segment is expected to be a major profit driver, supported by strong order books and demand signals [19]. - Ford maintains a high dividend yield of approximately 6%, targeting a payout ratio of 40-50% of free cash flow, which is attractive to income-focused investors [19].