Core Thesis - Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) is undervalued by the market despite its transformation into a stable, higher-margin packaged food company, trading at 10-11x forward earnings compared to peers like Hormel at 17x and Tyson at 14-15x [2][4] Business Transformation - The core business of SFD is Packaged Meats, which generates 75% of profits through brands such as Armour, Smithfield, and Eckrich, benefiting from SKU rationalization and expansion into higher-growth categories [3] - Fresh Pork has been transformed from a breakeven processor into a stable profit center, while Hog Production is being reduced through outsourcing to mitigate earnings volatility [4] Financial Position - SFD has a disciplined leadership team focused on capital allocation, a new dividend, low leverage, and a long-term plan to repurchase WH Group's majority stake, positioning itself as a consistent consumer packaged goods (CPG) operator [4] Market Dynamics and Catalysts - Near-term catalysts include a potential "beat and raise" setup due to conservative management guidance and favorable protein dynamics, with beef prices at record highs driving consumer trade-down to pork [5] - As the business mix shifts towards high-margin packaged foods, earnings are expected to stabilize, encouraging a re-rating towards CPG multiples, with a valuation target of 13-14x 2026 EPS of $2.50, indicating a 40% upside to $32-$35 [5]

Summary of Smithfield Foods Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Smithfield Foods (NasdaqGS:SFD) - **Industry**: Pork production and processing - **Founded**: 1936 in Smithfield, Virginia - **Business Model**: Vertically integrated pork producer and processor, major supplier of fresh and packaged meat products in the U.S. and globally [3][4] Key Business Segments - **Packaged Meats**: - Produces approximately 3 billion pounds of packaged meats annually across 25 categories, with 80% being pork-based and 20% a combination of beef and poultry [5][6] - Supports 14 different brands, down from 40 brands six to seven years ago, focusing on national, regional, and value brands [6][7] - **Fresh Pork**: - Harvests about 30 million hogs annually, with a focus on cost structure improvements through automation and technology [8][9] - Currently about 32%-33% vertically integrated, with plans to reduce hog production to about 10 million over the next two to three years [10][11] Demand and Market Position - **Consumer Demand**: - Demand for protein remains strong despite inflationary pressures, with Smithfield positioned across various price points to cater to different consumer segments [18][19] - Approximately 40% of retail business consists of private label products, allowing flexibility in pricing and consumer substitution [19][20] - **Market Trends**: - Pork is seen as a versatile protein option, available for all meal occasions, which supports its demand against higher-priced beef [23] Supply Chain and Pricing Outlook - **Hog Prices**: - Current hog cycle is balanced, with no significant expansion expected in the industry, leading to stable prices [27][28] - Anticipated moderation in hog prices for 2026, which should positively impact profitability and margins in the packaged meats business [31][49] Strategic Initiatives - **Product Mix and Innovation**: - Shift from low-margin products to higher-margin, everyday use products, with a focus on innovation in flavor profiles and product offerings [33][36] - Continuous improvement in cost structures and distribution networks to enhance operational efficiency [38][41] - **Vertical Integration Benefits**: - Vertical integration allows for better control over supply and cost structures, ensuring a steady supply of raw materials for packaged meats [42][44] Financial Outlook and Capital Allocation - **Capital Expenditure**: - Plans to invest approximately $400 million annually, with half allocated to automation and technology [65] - **M&A Strategy**: - Focused on disciplined acquisitions that solve specific operational challenges rather than expanding brand portfolio unnecessarily [66][67] - **2026 Outlook**: - Optimistic about growth in 2026, with expectations for improved margins and profitability across all segments [49][61] Additional Insights - **Health and Biosecurity**: - Significant improvements in herd health and biosecurity measures have been implemented, enhancing overall productivity [52][53] - **Market Adaptability**: - The company has shown resilience in adapting to market changes, including shifts in consumer preferences and external economic pressures [56][58] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Smithfield Foods conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market positioning, and financial outlook for the coming years.

Core Insights - Smithfield Foods, the largest U.S. pork processor, reported increased quarterly revenue and profits due to rising sales prices, leading to a 2.7% increase in share price after raising its annual profit forecast [1][4]. Financial Performance - Total sales increased by 12.4% to $3.75 billion for the quarter ending September 28, compared to the previous year [3]. - The company earned a quarterly profit of 58 cents per share on an adjusted basis from continuing operations, up from 53 cents a year earlier [3]. Sales Price and Volume - Average sales prices for packaged meat rose by 9.2%, while fresh pork product prices jumped by 12% due to lower U.S. production and strong consumer demand [2]. - Sales volumes remained steady despite the price increases [2]. Operating Profit and Forecast - The company raised its annual adjusted operating profit outlook to between $1.23 billion and $1.33 billion, up from a previous forecast of $1.15 billion to $1.35 billion [4]. - Operating profit in the largest packaged meats segment fell by 5.7%, and profits in the fresh pork division dropped approximately 64% [5]. Market Conditions - The U.S. hog herd was reported to be 1% smaller at the start of September compared to the previous year, impacting supply [2]. - Reduced U.S. exports of certain byproducts to China limited gains in average sales prices for fresh pork, with tariffs on most products shipped to China reaching 57% [5][6].

Financial Performance - Smithfield achieved a record third quarter adjusted operating profit of $310 million, an increase of 8.5% year-over-year, with an 8.3% adjusted operating profit margin[22] - The company's sales increased by 12.4% to $3,747 million in the third quarter of 2025, compared to $3,334 million in the same period of 2024[101] - Adjusted net income increased by 13.7% to $230 million, compared to $203 million in the prior year[101] - Adjusted EPS increased by 9.4% to $0.58, compared to $0.53 in the prior year[101] Segment Performance - Packaged Meats segment delivered its second-highest third-quarter adjusted operating profit despite a challenging market[22] - Packaged Meats sales increased by 9.1%, driven by a 9.2% increase in price, with volume remaining relatively flat[109] - Fresh Pork sales increased by 12.0% due to a 12.0% increase in price, while volume remained relatively flat[117] - Hog Production saw a 119.8% increase in adjusted operating profit[124] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on increasing profits in the Packaged Meats segment through enhanced product mix and volume growth[27] - Smithfield aims to achieve a best-in-class cost structure in its Hog Production segment through genetic transformation, herd health improvements, and procurement and nutrition savings[27] - The company is optimizing operations by delivering efficiencies across manufacturing, supply chain, distribution, procurement, and SG&A[27] - Smithfield anticipates paying annual dividends of $1.00 per share[5, 23]

Core Insights - Smithfield Foods, Inc. reported strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, achieving record operating profit despite challenging market conditions [4][5][7]. Financial Highlights - For the third quarter, net sales reached $3.7 billion, reflecting a 12.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [7]. - Operating profit was $310 million, with an operating margin of 8.3% [7]. - Packaged Meats segment generated an operating profit of $226 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.8% [7]. - For the first nine months of fiscal 2025, net sales totaled $11.3 billion, up 10.9% from the previous year [7]. Segment Performance - Packaged Meats sales increased by 9.1% to $2.09 billion in the third quarter [6]. - Fresh Pork sales rose by 12.0% to $2.185 billion [6]. - Hog Production segment sales grew by 10.1% to $813 million [6]. - Total segment sales for the third quarter amounted to $5.22 billion, a 10.5% increase year-over-year [6]. CEO Commentary - The CEO emphasized the company's disciplined execution of strategies, which led to sales growth and record operating profit [4]. - The company benefited from vertical integration, with higher profits in the Hog Production segment offsetting raw material cost challenges [5]. Financial Position - As of September 28, 2025, the company had $3.069 billion in available liquidity, including $773 million in cash [10]. - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was reported at 0.8x [10]. Dividend Information - The company paid dividends of $0.25 per share in April, May, and August 2025, with an anticipated annual dividend rate of $1.00 per share for fiscal year 2025 [12]. Fiscal Year 2025 Outlook - The company raised its full-year adjusted operating profit outlook to between $1.225 billion and $1.325 billion [16]. - Adjusted operating profit for the Packaged Meats segment is now projected to be between $1.060 billion and $1.110 billion [16].

Financial Results Announcement - Smithfield Foods, Inc. will release its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 before market open on October 28, 2025 [1] - A conference call to discuss the financial results will be held at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the same day [1] Conference Call Details - A recorded replay of the conference call will be available approximately three hours after its conclusion [2] - The replay can be accessed online and via telephone, with specific dial-in numbers provided [2] Company Overview - Smithfield Foods, Inc. is a leading American food company specializing in packaged meats and fresh pork products [3] - The company has a diverse brand portfolio and maintains strong relationships with U.S. farmers and customers [3]

Group 1 - Smithfield Foods, Inc. announced a secondary public offering of 19,531,698 shares at a price of $23.25 per share, with an additional option for underwriters to purchase up to 2,929,754 shares [1] - The offering is expected to close on September 8, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions [1] - The company will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares as it is solely conducted by the principal shareholder, SFDS UK Holdings Limited [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, and Barclays are acting as joint lead book-running managers for the offering, with Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BNP Paribas as joint book-running managers [2] - A registration statement for the offering has been filed and declared effective by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission [3] Group 3 - Smithfield Foods is recognized as an industry leader in value-added packaged meats and fresh pork, with a diverse brand portfolio and strong relationships with U.S. farmers and customers [6]

Core Viewpoint - Smithfield Foods, Inc. is launching a secondary public offering of 16,000,000 shares of common stock, with no proceeds going to the company itself [1] Group 1: Offering Details - The offering will be conducted by SFDS UK Holdings Limited, the principal shareholder of Smithfield Foods [1] - The underwriters will have a 30-day option to purchase up to 2,400,000 additional shares at the public offering price [1] - Smithfield Foods will not sell any shares in this offering and will not receive any proceeds from the sale [1] Group 2: Underwriters - Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, and Barclays are acting as joint lead book-running managers for the proposed offering [2] Group 3: Regulatory Information - A registration statement, including a prospectus, has been filed with the SEC but is not yet effective, meaning securities cannot be sold until it becomes effective [4] - The offering will be made only by means of a prospectus, which will be available for free on the SEC website and from the underwriters [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record second quarter adjusted operating profit of $298 million, up 20% from $248 million in 2024, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 7.9%, improved from 7.3% in 2024 [5][30] - Consolidated sales for the second quarter were $3.8 billion, representing an 11% increase or $374 million compared to the prior year [30] - Adjusted net income from continuing operations was a record $217 million compared to $192 million in 2024, with adjusted EPS at $0.55 per share compared to $0.51 per share in 2024 [30] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The packaged meat segment delivered an adjusted operating profit of $296 million with a margin of 14.2%, despite higher raw material costs, and sales increased by 6.9% year over year [7][31] - The fresh pork segment reported an adjusted operating profit of $30 million, up from $17 million in 2024, with a margin of 1.4% [8][32] - The hog production segment achieved an adjusted operating profit of $22 million, compared to a loss of $10 million in 2024, driven by improved market conditions [9][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a 4.5% increase in sales volume for packaged meats, with a 2.3% increase in average selling price driven by higher market prices for pork [31] - Fresh pork segment sales increased by 5% year over year, primarily due to a 3.3% increase in average selling price and a 1.7% increase in volume [33] - Hog production segment sales increased by 8.4% year over year, despite a 24% reduction in the number of hogs produced [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has five strategic growth priorities: increasing profits in packaged meats, growing fresh pork profits, achieving a best-in-class cost structure in hog production, optimizing operations, and evaluating M&A opportunities [11][12] - The focus is on enhancing product mix, volume growth, and innovation in the packaged meat segment, which represents 55% of consolidated sales [12][14] - The company aims to maximize product value across channels in the fresh pork segment and optimize operations in hog production to improve profitability [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating a dynamic consumer spending and geopolitical environment, raising the full-year outlook for adjusted operating profit [10][11] - The company anticipates total sales growth in the low to mid-single-digit percent range compared to fiscal 2024, with adjusted operating profit expectations for packaged meats and fresh pork remaining stable [37] - Management highlighted the importance of delivering value and convenience to consumers, particularly in the packaged meats segment, amidst cautious consumer spending [12][18] Other Important Information - The company has a strong balance sheet with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.7 times and liquidity of $3.2 billion [35] - Capital expenditures for the first half were $158 million, with over 50% allocated to projects driving top and bottom line growth [36] - The company plans to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, expecting to maintain a total annual dividend of $1 per share [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on consumer shift within brands and private label trends - Management noted that while there is an increase in private label share growth, the company's private label business provides a competitive advantage due to high-quality offerings [46][47] Question: Visibility on hog prices and profitability between hog production and fresh pork - Management indicated confidence in hog production profitability, supported by favorable market conditions and operational improvements [49][50] Question: Confidence in packaged meats profitability amidst rising raw material costs - Management emphasized efficiency improvements and a diversified product portfolio as key factors in maintaining profitability despite rising costs [56][58] Question: Dynamics around hog production hedging and mark to market impacts - Management clarified that mark to market adjustments impacted second quarter results but overall business performance remains strong, supporting the raised outlook [64][66] Question: Expectations for volume performance in packaged meats in the second half - Management expressed confidence in volume growth driven by product innovation and strong foodservice sales, with expectations for continued momentum [75][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record second quarter adjusted operating profit of $298 million, up 20% from $248 million in 2024, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 7.9%, improved from 7.3% in 2024 [5][28] - Consolidated sales for the second quarter were $3.8 billion, representing an 11% increase or $374 million compared to the prior year [28] - Adjusted net income from continuing operations was a record $217 million compared to $192 million in 2024, with adjusted EPS at $0.55 per share compared to $0.51 per share in 2024 [28] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The packaged meat segment delivered an adjusted operating profit of $296 million with a margin of 14.2%, despite higher raw material costs, and sales increased by 6.9% to $2.1 billion [29] - The fresh pork segment reported an adjusted operating profit of $30 million, up from $17 million in 2024, with a margin of 1.4% [30] - The hog production segment achieved an adjusted operating profit of $22 million, compared to a loss of $10 million in 2024, with sales increasing by 8.4% to $840 million [31][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a 4.5% increase in sales volume for packaged meats, driven by a favorable product mix and a later Easter holiday [29] - Fresh pork segment sales increased by 5% year over year, primarily due to a 3.3% increase in average selling price and a 1.7% increase in volume [31] - The hog production segment's sales increase was attributed to higher external grain and feed sales and the sale of commercial hog inventories [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has five strategic growth priorities: increasing profits in packaged meats, growing fresh pork profitability, achieving a best-in-class cost structure in hog production, optimizing operations, and evaluating synergistic M&A opportunities [11] - The focus remains on enhancing product mix, volume growth, and innovation in the packaged meat segment, which represents 55% of consolidated sales [12][14] - The company aims to maximize product value across channels in the fresh pork segment and optimize operations to deliver efficiencies [21][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating a dynamic consumer spending and geopolitical environment, raising the full-year outlook for adjusted operating profit primarily due to improved hog production segment performance [10][11] - The company anticipates total sales growth in the low to mid-single-digit percent range compared to fiscal 2024, with adjusted operating profit expectations for packaged meats and fresh pork remaining stable [36][37] - Management highlighted the importance of delivering value and convenience to consumers, particularly in the packaged meats segment, amidst cautious consumer spending [12][13] Other Important Information - The company has a strong balance sheet with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.7 times and liquidity of $3.2 billion [34] - Capital expenditures for the first half were $158 million, with over 50% allocated to projects driving growth [35] - The company paid quarterly dividends of $0.25 per share and expects to maintain a $1 per share annual dividend [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on consumer shifts within packaged meats and private label trends - Management noted that while there is an increase in private label share growth, their private label business provides a competitive advantage due to high-quality offerings [46][47] Question: Visibility on hog prices and their impact on profitability - Management indicated confidence in hog prices supported by market dynamics and improvements in hog production operations [49][50] Question: Confidence in packaged meats profitability amidst rising raw material costs - Management emphasized efficiency improvements and a strong product portfolio that allows them to mitigate raw material cost impacts [56][58] Question: Dynamics around hog production hedging and mark-to-market impacts - Management clarified that mark-to-market adjustments impacted second quarter results but overall business performance remains strong, leading to an increased full-year outlook [63] Question: Expectations for volume performance in packaged meats - Management expressed confidence in volume growth driven by product innovation and strong foodservice sales [72][73] Question: Competitive environment for packaged meats and promotional activity - Management highlighted a focus on quality over quantity in promotional strategies, leading to improved profit margins [80][81]