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Frozen Food Gains Momentum: Is NOMD Poised to Lead the Pack?
ZACKS· 2025-06-10 15:41
Core Insights - Frozen foods are experiencing rapid growth due to convenience, durability, and healthier options, with Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) leading the savory frozen food market [1][2] - The company is focused on acquiring a leadership position in the frozen food sector through product launches, market expansion, sustainability efforts, and strategic acquisitions [2][3] Company Strategy - Innovation is central to NOMD's strategy, enhancing its product offerings and market presence through acquisitions like Fortenova Group's Frozen Food Business Group, Findus Switzerland, Goodfella's, and Aunt Bessie's Limited [3][10] - The management highlighted that the frozen food category has outpaced the overall food industry by nearly one percentage point over the last decade, driven by trends in convenience, sustainability, value, and taste [4] Market Position and Competition - NOMD is strategically positioned to leverage evolving market trends and meet consumers' nutritional needs, with major competitors including Conagra Brands, Inc. and Tyson Foods, Inc. [5][6] - Conagra reported net sales of $1.1 billion in its Refrigerated & Frozen segment for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, emphasizing innovation and supply-chain modernization [7] - Tyson Foods' Prepared Foods segment generated $2.4 billion in sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, focusing on a broad range of frozen and refrigerated products [8] Financial Performance - NOMD's shares have increased by 5.5% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's decline of 2.2% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.11X, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.98X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year EPS growth of 7.3% for 2025 and 8.7% for 2026, although estimates have been revised downward in the past 30 days [12]
Nomad Foods (NOMD) 2025 Conference Transcript
2025-06-04 14:45
Summary of Nomad Foods Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nomad Foods - **Industry**: Frozen Food Key Messages - **Category Advantage**: Nomad Foods believes it has a competitive edge in the frozen food category, which has shown strong performance over the last decade, outperforming overall food trends [3][4][19] - **Portfolio Strength**: The company has a diverse portfolio in frozen food, including fish, vegetables, chicken, ice cream, and pizza, with two-thirds of its business focused on protein and vegetables [5][6][21][23] - **Market Share Focus**: Nomad Foods emphasizes the importance of market share, stating that it has maintained an average market share of 46% in its key categories, which represent about 37% of net sales [14][24] Financial Performance - **Sales Growth**: The company has consistently increased sales and EBITDA over the past nine years, with growth rates of 6%, 7%, and 10% in recent years despite market challenges [8][9] - **EBITDA Guidance**: For the current year, Nomad Foods expects EBITDA growth between 2% and 6%, with adjusted EPS projected between €1.82 and €1.89 [66][69] - **Free Cash Flow**: The company has generated over €2 billion in adjusted free cash flow from 2017 to 2024, with expectations of around €850 million in the coming years [69][70] Market Dynamics - **Category Growth**: The frozen food category is projected to grow at 2% in value and 1% in volume, with Nomad Foods stabilizing its market share despite some seasonal fluctuations [61][63][65] - **Competitive Landscape**: The company acknowledges the competitive pressure from private labels but remains focused on innovation and brand strength to maintain its market position [76][80] Innovation and Product Development - **Innovation Strategy**: Nomad Foods aims to increase its innovation rate, targeting 6.5% of its product offerings to be new innovations, leveraging successful products from one market to introduce in others [27][28][34] - **Product Renovation**: The company is committed to improving existing products, with a goal to enhance taste and quality, particularly in categories like pizza and fish fingers [31][33][34] Challenges and Opportunities - **Inflation Impact**: The company faced inflationary pressures, particularly in protein costs, which affected gross margins. However, it has chosen not to reopen negotiations with retailers to adjust pricing immediately [66][67] - **M&A Strategy**: Nomad Foods remains open to M&A opportunities but emphasizes a disciplined approach, focusing on synergies and avoiding high multiples [100][102] Future Outlook - **Long-term Growth Potential**: The company sees significant growth potential in frozen food, particularly in markets like Italy and Germany, where it plans to expand its product offerings [20][36][38] - **Consumer Trends**: Nomad Foods is adapting to changing consumer preferences, including a focus on health and convenience, which aligns with the growing popularity of air fryers and healthier frozen options [18][20][17] Conclusion - Nomad Foods is positioned well within the frozen food industry, leveraging its strong portfolio and market share while focusing on innovation and strategic growth opportunities. The company is navigating current challenges with a clear strategy aimed at long-term success.