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Gogo's 5G Rollout, Faster Synergies, Strong Free Cash Flow Outlook Prompt Analyst Optimism
Benzingaยท 2025-05-12 17:23
Core Viewpoint - Gogo Inc reported strong first-quarter results and maintained its 2025 guidance, with a price target set at $11 by JPMorgan analyst Sebastiano C Petti, who holds a Neutral rating on the stock [1]. Financial Performance - Gogo's first-quarter results exceeded expectations, prompting Petti to raise his 2025 EBITDA forecast by 4% to $217 million, which is at the high end of the guidance range of $210 million to $220 million [2][6]. - The updated fiscal year 2025 revenue is projected at $906 million, slightly above the guidance of $870 million to $910 million, driven by a 3% increase in service revenue to $767 million [6]. Growth Strategy and Future Outlook - Gogo is expected to ramp up service revenue growth in 2026, supported by strong free cash flow generation anticipated in that year, aided by easing program investments and synergy realization [3][4]. - The company is on track for significant free cash flow acceleration, which should facilitate rapid de-leveraging over the next 12-18 months, with share buybacks expected to resume in the second half of 2026 [4]. Revenue and Cash Flow Projections - Petti raised the second-quarter total company revenue estimate to $220 million, reflecting higher service revenue from GEO and Narrowband, although offset by weaker equipment ARPU and lower ATG service revenue [5]. - The projected free cash flow for 2025 is $76 million, slightly higher due to improved EBITDA, while the 2026 free cash flow is expected to reach $137 million, significantly above the previous estimate of $123 million [7]. Market Performance - Gogo shares experienced a notable increase of 13.64%, trading at $12.50 at the time of publication [8].