This structure points to information by omission. With GOOGL stock down quite noticeably this month, a temptation exists to protect against further downside, especially amid concerns about a bubble brewing in artificial intelligence. But the smart money appears relaxed, which could open the doors to a contrarian position.First, IV pricing for both puts and calls is relatively flat and measured near the spot price. As the volatility skew rises at the edges, it does so in a gentle controlled manner. Yes, put ...

Core Viewpoint - Out-of-the-money (OTM) put options for Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) present a potential 1.77% return for short-sellers over the next month, while the stock has a projected upside of 32% based on free cash flow (FCF) targets [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Options Strategy - GOOGL closed at $309.29 on December 12, slightly below its recent peak of $323.44 on November 25, with a potential valuation of $408.27 over the next year [1]. - The article discusses leveraging OTM put options and in-the-money (ITM) calls to capitalize on GOOGL's upside [3]. - A previous short on the $275.00 strike price put option yielded a 1.764% return, while GOOGL's stock increased by 6.8% over the last month, outperforming the OTM short-put return [4]. Group 2: Free Cash Flow and Valuation - Based on strong FCF margins, GOOGL could be valued over $408 within the next 12 months, with the last quarter's FCF margin rising to 23.9% from 19.98% a year earlier [6]. - Assuming a conservative FCF generation of $90 billion to $100 billion in 2026, GOOGL's stock could be valued between $4.5 trillion and $5 trillion, indicating a potential increase of approximately $1 trillion or 26.8% from its current market cap of $3.746 trillion [7].