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Itron Down 26% in the Past 3 Months: What Should Investors Do Now?
ZACKS· 2026-01-02 14:30
Core Viewpoint - Itron, Inc. (ITRI) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 26% over the past three months and 31.6% over the past six months, underperforming both the Zacks Electronics - Testing Equipment industry and the broader market [1][8]. Financial Performance - Itron has lowered its 2025 revenue guidance to $2.35–$2.36 billion, indicating an approximate 3% year-over-year decline. The fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is projected to be between $555–$565 million, reflecting a 9% decrease from the previous year [4]. - Non-GAAP EPS is expected to range from $2.15 to $2.25 [4]. Competitive Landscape - The company is facing intense competition, leading to pricing pressure and potential market share erosion. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including higher interest rates and inflation, are causing consumers to delay bill payments and impacting project approvals [3][4]. Operational Challenges - Itron's elevated debt burden stands at $1.265 billion, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 42.1%, significantly higher than the industry average of 25.8%. This high leverage may limit cash flow flexibility and access to favorable refinancing options [5]. Growth Drivers - Despite the challenges, Itron's Grid Edge Intelligence platform is showing momentum, driven by demand in data centers, electrification, grid modernization, and digitalization across utilities, supported by a backlog of $4.3 billion [6]. - Frequent product launches, including the Gen6 network platform and UtilityIQ suite, are enhancing Itron's offerings and market position [9]. Strategic Initiatives - Itron is pursuing strategic acquisitions, such as the planned acquisition of Locusview for $525 million and Urbint, Inc. for $325 million, aimed at enhancing its capabilities in utility construction management and predictive risk analytics [10]. - Collaborations with companies like Gordian Technologies to integrate AI and machine learning into its offerings are expected to improve grid resilience and operational efficiency [10]. Valuation - Itron's stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio of 13.54X, which is below the industry average of 23.84X, indicating a potential undervaluation [11].