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How Did Tempus AI Power Its Move to Positive EBITDA in Q3?
ZACKSยท 2025-11-17 14:56
Core Insights - Tempus AI reported positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 million in Q3, marking a significant milestone after ten years of efforts, driven by strong performance across major business segments and disciplined operational execution [1][9] Genomics Business Performance - The Genomics segment experienced a 33% year-over-year increase in total volumes, with Oncology testing growing by 27% and Hereditary testing rising by 37%, indicating broad-based strength across nearly all assays offered [2][9] Operational Efficiency and Sales Force Stabilization - Following earlier disruptions from team restructuring related to the MRD portfolio, the company has spent several quarters retraining and stabilizing its sales force, which has now become more efficient and fully trained, leading to improved execution [3] Data Licensing Growth - The Data Licensing (Insights) business grew by 38% during the quarter, securing $150 million in new total contract value from multiple significant agreements [3][9] Cost Discipline and Margin Expansion - Tempus highlighted ongoing cost discipline and efficiency efforts that contributed to margin expansion, achieving positive adjusted EBITDA despite incurring several million dollars in incremental expenses from the Paige acquisition, which was completed mid-quarter [4][9] Peer Comparison - Myriad Genetics reported adjusted EBITDA of $10.3 million in Q3 2025, with a full-year forecast of $27-$33 million, driven by a 70.1% adjusted gross margin and controlled discretionary spending [5] - Quest Diagnostics showed stronger profitability in Q3, with gross and operating margins expanding by 110 and 132 basis points, respectively, while targeting 3% annual cost savings through its Invigorate program [6] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Tempus AI shares have increased by 26.7%, outperforming the industry growth of 12.3% and the S&P 500 composite's 16.4% improvement [7] Valuation Metrics - Tempus AI currently trades at a forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 8.00X, compared to the industry average of 5.81X, indicating an expensive valuation [10] Earnings Estimates - In the past 30 days, the loss per share estimate for Tempus AI for 2025 has narrowed by 3 cents, with current estimates at -$0.05 for the current quarter and -$0.65 for the current year [11][12]