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Great Income Squeeze Begins as Fed Spells End to Easy Yields
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-10 06:14
Core Viewpoint - The era of easy returns for income investors is coming to an end as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, leading to lower yields on safe assets like US Treasuries [3][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Short-term US Treasuries previously offered yields above 5%, providing a safe investment option for institutions, marking a shift from the low-interest environment of the past decade [2]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are part of an easing cycle that has already reduced yields from their post-pandemic highs, diminishing the easy gains from safe assets [3]. - A broad cross-asset rally, driven by AI enthusiasm and resilient US growth, has lowered returns across public markets, forcing investors to consider longer durations, reduced liquidity, or increased risk [4]. Group 2: Investment Alternatives - Dividend yields on global equities, as per the MSCI All Country World Index, are near their lowest since 2002, and investment-grade credit spreads are just above multi-decade lows, indicating limited room for error if the economic outlook worsens [5]. - Longer-maturity Treasury yields have recently risen to multi-month highs, but they are influenced by growth, inflation, and fiscal risks, making returns reliant on timing and conviction rather than solely on central bank actions [6]. - Investors are increasingly looking towards high yield, emerging-market debt, AAA-rated collateralized loan obligations, and securitization investments to enhance income and diversify their portfolios [7]. Group 3: Private Credit Market - Private credit has attracted hundreds of billions from institutions seeking returns beyond listed debt, although interest has cooled this year due to concerns about deal quality and market saturation [8]. - Lower Treasury yields are expected to bolster the appeal of private assets as allocators reassess their income strategies [8].