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VRT vs. SMCI: Which AI Infrastructure Stock is a Stronger Buy?
ZACKSยท 2025-04-29 20:00
Core Viewpoint - Vertiv (VRT) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) are key players in the AI infrastructure market, which is expected to exceed $200 billion in spending by 2028, presenting significant investment opportunities for both companies [1]. Company Performance - Vertiv shares have declined 24.2% year-to-date (YTD), while Super Micro Computer shares have increased by 21.7%. Since the 90-day tariff pause on April 9, VRT shares have appreciated 18.3%, compared to SMCI's 1.1% [2]. Vertiv (VRT) Analysis - Vertiv's extensive product portfolio includes thermal systems, liquid cooling, UPS, switchgear, busbar, and modular solutions. Organic orders grew approximately 20% in the trailing 12 months, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4 for Q1 2025, indicating strong prospects. The backlog increased by 10% sequentially and 25% year-over-year to $7.9 billion [5]. - In March, Vertiv launched four new systems, enhancing capabilities in infrastructure management, modular deployment, advanced thermal management, and DC power distribution [6]. - Strong capital expenditure plans by hyperscalers for data center expansion are favorable for Vertiv. The company expects net sales for 2025 to be between $9.325 billion and $9.575 billion, up from the previous guidance of $9.13 billion to $9.28 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VRT's 2025 revenues is $9.23 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15.14% [7]. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Analysis - Super Micro Computer is experiencing growth due to the increasing deployment of AI and HPC workloads, with rising demand for its high-performance and energy-efficient servers as data centers expand [9]. - The company leads the Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC) market, having shipped over 3,000 DLC racks in 2024, which is approximately 70% of the global DLC market. SMCI is rapidly expanding its production facilities across Malaysia, Taiwan, Europe, and the United States [10]. - Super Micro Computer has a growing partner base, including Intel and AMD, and utilizes Intel Gaudi 3 accelerators for scalable AI tasks. Its H14 Series servers leverage AMD's EPYC 9005 CPUs and GPU-Accelerated Systems utilize AMD's Instinct MI325X GPUs [11]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vertiv's 2025 earnings is $3.55 per share, down by 1.11% over the past 30 days, indicating a 24.56% increase over 2024's reported figure [12]. - For Super Micro Computer, the consensus estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings has declined by 1.2% to $2.52 per share over the past 30 days, suggesting a 14.03% growth over fiscal 2024 [13]. Earnings Quality - Vertiv has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.42%. In contrast, Super Micro Computer has beaten estimates twice and missed once, with a negative surprise of 1.82% [14]. Valuation Comparison - Both companies are considered overvalued, with a Value Score of D. Vertiv shares are trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio of 22.57X, while Super Micro Computer's ratio is 11.84X, indicating that SMCI is cheaper than VRT [14][15]. Conclusion - Super Micro Computer benefits from strong momentum from data center and cloud computing clients and is less exposed to tariff concerns compared to Vertiv. Currently, SMCI holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), making it a stronger investment choice compared to Vertiv, which has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [18].