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APLD's AI Pivot Explained: What the 2025-2027 Ramp Means for the Stock
ZACKSยท 2025-12-05 18:56
Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) is transitioning from crypto hosting to AI-focused data centers, supported by long-term leases and asset-level capital [1][9] - The company has secured over $160 million in project financing for the development of Polaris Forge 1 and 2 [9] - Total lease revenues are projected to reach $16 billion across 600 MW, with revenue recognition starting as early as late 2025 [9] Financial Developments - In Q1 of fiscal 2026, APLD drew $112.5 million from a Macquarie preferred equity facility for Polaris Forge 1 and secured $50 million for Polaris Forge 2 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 fiscal 2026 revenues is $75.95 million, indicating an 18.91% increase from the previous year [8] - Adjusted EBITDA fell in the fiscal first quarter due to low-margin tenant fit-out, leading to negative operating cash flow [7] Project and Lease Details - At Polaris Forge 1, CoreWeave has fully leased 400 MW with 15-year terms, anticipating $11 billion in contracted lease revenues [4] - Polaris Forge 2 has an executed lease covering 200 MW, expected to generate about $5 billion in revenues over 15 years [5] - Initial capacity for Polaris Forge 2 is anticipated in 2026, with the full 300 MW campus targeted for 2027 [5] Operational Strategy - Management aims to reduce build timelines to 12-14 months from approximately 24 months, allowing for parallel development of multiple campuses [6] - Design features include direct-to-chip liquid cooling and near-zero water usage, enhancing delivery speed amid tightening grid capacity [6] Competitive Landscape - APLD faces competition from large-scale operators like Equinix, which operates over 260 data centers globally [9] - The industry is crowded with players pursuing AI workload support, emphasizing the need for APLD's execution and lease depth as key differentiators [10]