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Here's Why You Should Add Frontdoor Stock to Your Portfolio Right Now
ZACKS· 2026-01-19 18:56
Core Insights - Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) is experiencing growth driven by the 2-10 acquisition and operational improvements, with strong performance in the non-warranty segment and favorable trends in the real estate channel [1][5][10] Financial Performance - FTDR shares have increased by 2.1% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry's decline of 1.7% [2] - The company has consistently exceeded earnings estimates, averaging a 59.4% beat over the last four quarters [2] - The 2026 EPS estimate has been revised upward to $4.05 from $3.99 [3] Revenue Growth - Renewal revenues increased by 9%, aided by the 2-10 acquisition and improved pricing strategies [5][9] - The real estate channel saw a 21% revenue increase, marking a significant recovery milestone [5][9] - Direct-to-consumer revenues grew by 11%, driven by targeted marketing and promotional pricing [8] - Non-warranty revenues surged by 73% year over year, primarily due to the new HVAC program [8] Acquisition Impact - The 2-10 acquisition significantly contributed to revenue growth, with $47 million in favorable revenue conversion [9] - Total revenues for 2025 are expected to grow by 13%, with approximately 10% attributed to the acquisition [9] - The acquisition enhances Frontdoor's market reach and competitive positioning [10] Margin Expansion - Gross profit margin expanded by 60 basis points year over year, with adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 32% [11] - The company narrowed its full-year 2025 gross profit margin outlook to approximately 55.5% and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to $545 million to $550 million [11] Return on Equity - Frontdoor's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) stands at 122.7%, significantly higher than the industry average of 14.7% [12]
Frontdoor(FTDR) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-01 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 13% to $426 million, net income grew by 9% to $37 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 41% to $100 million [4][18][19] - Member count grew by 7% to 2.1 million members [5] - Gross profit increased by 21% to $235 million, with a gross profit margin improvement of 380 basis points to a record 55% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel member count increased by 15% to 310,000, with organic growth of 4% [7][10] - Real estate channel faced challenges, with a 6% decline in first-year organic member count [11][12] - Non-warranty revenue is growing, with expectations for HVAC program revenue at $105 million and new home structural warranty revenue at $44 million for 2025 [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Existing home sales decreased by 5.9% to an annual rate of 4.02 million, while the median sales price for existing homes rose to $403,700 [11] - The 30-year mortgage rate averaged nearly 7% as of mid-April, contributing to consumer market challenges [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company’s strategic priorities include growing the member base, scaling revenue from non-warranty business, and optimizing the integration of the 2-10 Homebuyers Warranty [5][6] - The marketing campaign and relaunch of the American Home Shield brand are yielding positive results, particularly among millennials [9] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating macroeconomic challenges, including high interest rates and declining consumer confidence [5][29] - The company raised its full-year revenue outlook by $20 million and adjusted EBITDA by nearly $50 million, reflecting strong operational performance [18][34] Other Important Information - The company reported a record free cash flow of $117 million for the first quarter, with a free cash flow yield of 9% [27] - The company plans to increase share repurchases to at least $200 million for 2025, indicating confidence in its valuation [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on HVAC equipment - Management indicated minimal inflation in Q1, with HVAC costs actually down, and expressed confidence in managing potential tariff impacts [42] Question: Trends in service requests - The increase in service requests was primarily driven by the addition of the 2-10 Homebuyers Warranty, with expectations to normalize around 4 million for the year [53][54] Question: Sustainability of promotional pricing strategy - The company is adopting a pulsing promotional strategy, which is expected to be sustainable while prioritizing member growth [56][57] Question: Drivers of outperformance in renewals revenue - Outperformance was attributed to stronger renewals and non-warranty revenue, particularly from HVAC and Moen partnerships [62][63] Question: Confidence in raising gross margin guidance - The company raised its gross margin guidance based on strong Q1 performance and expectations of flat inflation, while accounting for potential tariff impacts [76][80]