Core Viewpoint - Centene experienced a significant drop in stock price, closing down over 40% on July 2, resulting in a loss of over $11 billion in market capitalization, with competitors also facing declines [1][2][5] Group 1: Financial Impact - The drop in Centene's shares was primarily due to the withdrawal of its 2025 full-year guidance, indicating a more challenging financial outlook [2][4] - The company received data indicating lower growth in the ACA exchange market and higher morbidity among enrollees, leading to fewer and sicker patients [3][4] - The expected impact on Centene's 2025 diluted earnings per share (EPS) is a reduction of $2.75, which is 38% of the previously expected EPS of greater than $7.25 [4][5] Group 2: Market Valuation - Despite the significant stock sell-off, Wall Street analysts see a more attractive valuation for Centene, with a 12-month price target of $68.87, implying a potential upside of 108.31% from the current price [5][6] - The average price target post-guidance withdrawal is $51, suggesting a 53% upside, which is higher than the 32% average upside prior to the drop [6][7] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The recent legislation signed into law includes $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, which accounted for approximately 46% of Centene's revenue last quarter, potentially leading to 10.3 million to 11.8 million fewer Medicaid recipients over the next decade [8][9] - The reduction in expected Medicaid users could have a more significant and lasting impact on Centene compared to the ACA exchange enrollment issues, which only made up 20% of the firm's total revenue last quarter [9]