Core Viewpoint - Centene Corporation is facing significant challenges, including a projected non-GAAP loss for Q3 and a substantial decline in stock prices over the past year, raising concerns about its future earnings and the sustainability of its business model [2][4][5]. Financial Performance - Centene is expected to report a non-GAAP loss of $0.18 per share for Q3, a sharp decline from a profit of $1.62 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full fiscal year 2025, the non-GAAP EPS is projected to be $1.64, down 77.1% from $7.17 in 2024, but is expected to rebound to $2.94 per share in fiscal 2026, representing a 79.3% year-over-year increase [3]. Stock Performance - Centene's stock has decreased by 46.3% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund's 4.5% decline and the S&P 500 Index's 17.9% increase during the same period [4]. - A notable drop of 40.4% in stock price occurred on July 2 after the company withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance, which was attributed to unexpected enrollment trends and rising patient costs [5]. Operational Challenges - The company has identified rising medical costs in its Medicaid business, particularly in behavioral health and high-cost drug categories, as significant pressure points [6]. - Centene is adjusting its 2026 ACA rates to account for higher morbidity assumptions and plans to implement corrective pricing strategies across most states, raising concerns about the sustainability of ACA economics [6].