Hondros College of Nursing (HCN)
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American Public Education (APEI) Up 1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
ZACKS· 2025-12-10 17:30
Core Viewpoint - American Public Education (APEI) reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, exceeding estimates, but has revised its full-year guidance downward for revenues and adjusted EBITDA [3][4][13]. Financial Performance - APEI's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 was 30 cents, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 9-cent loss by 433.3% and up from 4 cents in the same quarter last year [5]. - Total revenues reached $163.2 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $161 million by 1.6% and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.6% [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 60% year over year to $20.7 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 13%, up 500 basis points from 8% [6]. Segment Performance - American Public University System (APUS) reported revenues of $83.1 million, an 8% increase from $77 million year-over-year, driven by an 8% growth in net course registrations [7]. - Rasmussen University (RU) generated revenues of $60.8 million, a 15.6% increase from $52.6 million, with total student enrollment rising by 10.4% to 14,900 [8]. - Hondros College of Nursing (HCN) saw revenues rise 19% year-over-year to $18.4 million, supported by a 17.6% increase in total student enrollment to 3,700 [9]. Guidance and Outlook - For Q4 2025, APEI expects total revenues to decline by 6-9% year-over-year to a range of $150-$153.5 million, with EPS projected between 32 cents and 45 cents compared to 63 cents a year ago [11]. - The company has revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a growth of 2-3% year-over-year, now expected to be between $640-$644 million, down from the previous estimate of $650-$660 million [13]. - Capital expenditures are now expected to be between $15-$17 million, a decrease from the prior range of $18-$22 million [14]. Market Reaction - Since the earnings release, there has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 30.59% [15]. - APEI currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of an in-line return from the stock in the coming months [17].