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Can Dutch Bros Protect Its Margins as Coffee Inflation Heats Up?
ZACKS· 2025-11-20 18:31
Core Insights - Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) is focusing on margin preservation amid rising input costs, particularly coffee, while maintaining strong traffic and new unit growth [1][2][7] - The company is experiencing significant coffee inflation, which is expected to persist into 2026, impacting margins despite the positive effects of its hot food program [2][7] - Digital adoption and targeted rewards are helping the company manage cost pressures and sustain transaction momentum [4][7] Financial Performance - BROS shares have declined 3.6% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average decline of 11% [5] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 4.2, higher than the industry average of 3.35 [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BROS' 2026 earnings per share remains at 86 cents, with a projected 27.6% rise in earnings [10][12] Operational Developments - The hot food program is contributing to higher ticket and transaction growth but introduces modest dilution to product margins [2][7] - Labor improvements are providing some relief, although increased payroll taxes in California are creating temporary margin headwinds [3] - Preopening expenses are rising as the company expands into new markets, impacting short-term EBITDA flow-through [3] Market Position - Demand fundamentals remain strong, with increased adoption of the Order Ahead feature and effective brand-building efforts supporting transaction growth [4] - Competitors like Starbucks, Sweetgreen, and Chipotle are experiencing varying declines in stock performance, with Sweetgreen seeing a significant drop of 81.1% [5]