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ILMN Q4 Earnings Preview: NovaSeq X Momentum Likely to Aid Performance
ZACKS· 2026-02-02 15:41
Core Insights - Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.34 in the last reported quarter, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.5% [1] Q4 Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is $1.16 billion, indicating a 4.6% growth from the previous year [2] - The earnings estimate is $1.26 per share, reflecting a 46.5% increase from the year-ago figures [2] Estimate Revision Trend - Earnings estimates for the fourth quarter have risen by 2.4% to $1.26 over the past 30 days [3] Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - The Core Illumina segment's performance may be impacted by macroeconomic challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reduced U.S. government funding for the NIH [4] - The company faces cost exposure related to imports from its Singapore manufacturing facility, while the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has lifted its export ban on Illumina's sequencing instruments, although the company remains on the Unreliable Entities List [4] Positive Developments - Illumina is expected to benefit from the momentum of the NovaSeq X in Q4, with high-throughput volumes likely increasing due to strong clinical market demand outside of China [5] - The company exceeded its goal of high-throughput gigabases shipped and revenues on the X platform, indicating strong demand for sequencing [6] Revenue Projections - Sequencing Consumables revenues are projected to grow by 3.2% year-over-year in Q4, despite ongoing funding uncertainty affecting research customers [7] - Sequencing Instruments revenues may decline by 12.2% year-over-year, impacted by export restrictions in Greater China [8] Strategic Initiatives - Illumina's strategic focus includes growing its core sequencing business, scaling into multiomics, and enhancing services and software capabilities [11] - The launch of the Illumina Protein Prep assay and the introduction of BioInsight are expected to positively influence Q4 revenues [12] Earnings Prediction - Illumina has an Earnings ESP of +2.25%, indicating a higher likelihood of beating estimates [13]