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Caterpillar vs. Volvo: Which Heavy Equipment Stock is the Better Buy?
ZACKS· 2026-01-19 18:50
Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. and Volvo are leading companies in the heavy machinery and construction equipment industry, focusing on electrification and autonomous technologies to drive future growth [1][10] Caterpillar Overview - Caterpillar has a market capitalization of $302.7 billion and is the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives [2][3] - In Q3 2025, Caterpillar reported record revenues of $17.6 billion, a 9.5% increase year-over-year, with a 10% rise in sales volume, marking a return to revenue growth after six quarters of decline [4] - The company anticipates modest revenue growth for 2025, projecting net incremental tariffs of $1.6-$1.75 billion, which may impact adjusted operating margins [5] - Caterpillar is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure projects driven by the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as well as rising demand for mining equipment due to the shift towards clean energy [6] - The company is experiencing strong order levels for reciprocating engines for data centers and plans to double its output through a multi-year capital investment [7] - Caterpillar aims to double its service revenues from $14 billion in 2016 to $28 billion by 2026, focusing on aftermarket parts and service-related revenues [8] Volvo Overview - Volvo, with a market capitalization of $68.9 billion, is a major manufacturer of trucks, buses, and construction equipment, including a wide range of machinery for various sectors [2][11] - Since 2024, Volvo CE has faced weakened demand for construction equipment, leading to a 16% decrease in net sales in 2024 and an 8.5% drop in the first nine months of 2025 [12][13] - Despite the downturn, Volvo continues to innovate, recently expanding its European industrial footprint with a new crawler excavator assembly factory to meet rising customer demand [14] - The company is investing in crawler excavator production at three key locations to mitigate supply-chain risks and support long-term growth in infrastructure needs [15] Financial Comparisons - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Caterpillar's 2025 earnings is $18.53 per share, reflecting a 15.4% decline year-over-year, while the 2026 estimate suggests a 21.2% increase [16] - For Volvo, the 2025 earnings estimate is $1.93 per share, indicating a 17.5% dip, with a projected growth of 26.4% in 2026 [17] - Over the past year, Caterpillar's stock has surged 70.1%, while Volvo's has gained 41.4%, both outperforming the Industrial Products Sector and the S&P 500 [19] - Caterpillar's return on equity stands at 47.16%, significantly higher than Volvo's 22.66%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [23] Investment Considerations - Both Caterpillar and Volvo are navigating near-term challenges but are well-positioned for long-term growth driven by global infrastructure needs [25] - Despite a higher valuation, Caterpillar's superior return on equity may make it a more favorable option for investors seeking exposure to construction equipment [26]