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3 investment ideas from last night’s reader dinner
Undervalued Shares· 2025-10-03 11:01
Company Insights - Gerresheimer is a German medical supplies company specializing in packaging products made from specialty glass and plastics, primarily for medication and drug delivery devices [3] - The company was the world's leading manufacturer of vaccine glass vials during the pandemic, with production volumes reaching around 3.5 billion in 2021 [3] - Gerresheimer is currently known for producing injection pens used in the weight loss drug Ozempic, although its plastics and devices division has underperformed recently [4] Financial Performance - Gerresheimer's stock has fallen by 70% since its pandemic-era peak, with recent challenges including a flooded US plant during Hurricane Helene in September 2024 [4] - The company’s share price has dropped from nearly EUR 90 offered by private equity firms KKR and Warburg Pincus to just EUR 37 today [5] - The CFO's resignation and an investigation by Germany's financial regulator BaFin into alleged accounting violations have contributed to the decline in share price [7] Market Opportunities - An upcoming investor day on October 15, 2025, may present a potential catalyst for Gerresheimer, with speculation about the sale of its moulded glass business [8] - If the sale occurs, it could initiate a turnaround narrative for the company, with a potential 30% upside in stock price [10] i-80 Gold Corp. Insights - i-80 Gold Corp. has been one of the worst-performing gold mining companies over the past five years, with its share price falling from CAD 4 to CAD 1 despite a doubling of gold prices [11] - The appointment of a new CEO, an accountant, marks a significant shift in management strategy, with hopes of building a mining operation capable of producing 600,000 ounces of gold annually by 2032 [13][14] - The current market cap of i-80 Gold Corp. is CAD 1 billion, which is significantly lower than typical market caps for similar-sized gold mining operations [14][15] Novo Nordisk Insights - Novo Nordisk operates in a duopoly in the weight loss drug market alongside Eli Lilly, with its stock price dropping from DKK 1,000 to under DKK 400 in the past year [16][17] - Recent setbacks include a drug trial that reported 23% weight loss, slightly below the projected 25%, leading to a CEO departure [19] - Despite challenges, the global market for weight loss drugs is expected to remain dominated by branded products, with Novo Nordisk potentially regaining a strong market position [21] - Novo Nordisk trades at about one-third the multiples of Eli Lilly, suggesting a potential upside of 50-100% as market concerns fade [22]