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中国电机供应商_助力未来发展_首予德昌电机增持评级、卧龙电驱中性评级-China Electric Motor Suppliers_ Powering what‘s next_ Initiate coverage of Johnson Electric at OW and Wolong Electric at Neutral
2025-10-15 14:44
Summary of the Conference Call on China Electric Motor Suppliers Industry Overview - The report focuses on the electric motor supply industry in China, specifically covering **Johnson Electric** and **Wolong Electric** as key players in the sector [2][8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Company Ratings and Price Targets - **Johnson Electric** is rated **Overweight (OW)** with a price target of **HK$67**, indicating an **82% potential upside** from current levels [3][31]. - **Wolong Electric** is rated **Neutral** with a price target of **Rmb43**, suggesting a **10% potential downside** [3][31]. Growth Drivers 1. **AI Data Centers**: - Johnson and Wolong are expanding into liquid cooling components, with a total addressable market (TAM) projected at **Rmb4 billion** for EC motors, **Rmb6 billion** for direct-to-chip cooling pumps, and **Rmb12 billion** for cold plates by 2026 [24][34]. - The shift from air to liquid cooling is driven by the increasing power density of AI servers, creating significant opportunities for both companies [34][35]. 2. **Humanoid Robotics**: - The global TAM for humanoid robotics is estimated at **5 billion units**. Johnson focuses on integrated actuators with higher content per humanoid, while Wolong has a broader reach with lighter-duty solutions [26][43][45]. - The dollar content per robot is approximately **Rmb106k** for Johnson and **Rmb76k** for Wolong, indicating substantial potential earnings upside [26][44]. 3. **eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing)**: - The domestic eVTOL market in China is expected to reach **5,000 units/year by 2035**. Wolong is more exposed in this area, partnering with Geely's AeroFugia [27][28]. Valuation Insights - Johnson is seen as undervalued, trading at **16x CY26E P/E** compared to Wolong's **52x CY26E P/E**, despite similar earnings growth projections [5][31]. - The report suggests that Johnson's growth potential in AI cooling and robotics remains underappreciated, while Wolong's valuation reflects its current growth trajectory [17][31]. Near-term Catalysts - For **Johnson Electric**: - Tesla Optimus pilot hand validation (1H26) - AI cooling architecture developments - Participation in humanoid forums [5]. - For **Wolong Electric**: - Humanoid targets from Zhiyuan/Lenovo (end-25) - AeroFugia eVTOL certification (1H26) - HKEX IPO filing (1Q26) [5]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the structural opportunity driven by secular demand in the electric motor supply chain, with both companies emerging as critical partners in high-growth verticals [8][22]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with both Johnson and Wolong positioned to capture significant market share as demand for high-performance motor solutions increases [22][39]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a positive outlook for the electric motor supply industry in China, with Johnson Electric positioned for substantial upside due to its undervaluation and growth potential in emerging sectors like AI cooling and humanoid robotics, while Wolong Electric's valuation appears to already reflect its growth prospects.