Align Technology (NasdaqGS:ALGN) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 04, 2026 04:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsJohn Morici - CFOJoseph Hogan - President and CEOShirley Stacy - Vice President of Corporate Communications and Head of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsDylan Finley - AnalystElizabeth Anderson - AnalystErin Wright - AnalystJonathan Block - AnalystOperatorGreetings. Welcome to the Align Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 revenues reached a record $1.048 billion, up 5.3% year-over-year and 5.2% sequentially [5] - For the full year 2025, total revenues were a record $4 billion, up 1% year-over-year [5] - Q4 overall gross margin was 65.3%, up 1.1 points sequentially but down 4.8 points year-over-year [40][41] - Q4 net income per diluted share was $1.89, up $1.11 sequentially and up $0.50 year-over-year [51] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Systems and services revenues were $790 million, up 2.7% year-over-year [6] - Clear aligner revenues for Q4 were $838 million, up 5.5% year-over-year and up 4% sequentially [7][34] - Fiscal 2025 clear aligner revenues were $3.2 billion, up 0.5% year-over-year on record clear aligner volumes of 2.6 million cases [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 clear aligner volume was a record 677,000 cases, up 7.7% year-over-year [8] - In EMEA, clear aligner volumes grew double digits year-over-year, with significant growth in Iberia, the Nordics, and the UK [18] - In APAC, clear aligner volumes also grew double digits year-over-year, with record shipments from China, India, and Korea [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding international adoption and increasing orthodontic utilization, particularly among teens and kids [62] - Strengthening consumer demand conversion through localized last-mile marketing is a key strategy [62] - The company aims to enhance its digital platform and maintain leadership in treatment planning and 3D printing manufacturing [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the macro environment while highlighting strong fundamentals and execution [61][66] - The company expects Q1 2026 worldwide revenues to be in the range of $1.01 billion to $1.03 billion, up 3%-5% year-over-year [57] - For fiscal 2026, the company anticipates worldwide revenue growth of 3%-4% year-over-year [59] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 0.7 million shares of common stock at an average price of $142.87 during Q4 [53] - Cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2025, were $1.0949 billion, up $90.3 million sequentially [52] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you parse apart the improved volume performance? - Management noted stability in markets and effective execution, particularly with DSOs driving growth [71] Question: What are the assumptions for 2026 guidance regarding end markets? - Management expects markets to behave consistently with recent trends and emphasizes active conversion strategies [82] Question: Can you discuss the growth of DSOs and their adoption curve? - Management indicated that DSOs are expanding and that there are good growth parameters in this business [86] Question: What is driving the improvement in the adult business? - Factors include DSO growth, financial credit support, and effective patient conversion strategies [91] Question: How do you view the ASPs for 2026? - Management expects ASPs to be down 1%-2% year-over-year due to country and product mix [101]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 2025 revenues reached a record $1.048 billion, up 5.3% year-over-year and 5.2% sequentially [3][19] - Full year 2025 total revenues were $4 billion, up 1% year-over-year [3] - Non-GAAP operating margin for Q4 was 22.7%, the highest since 2021 [4] - Q4 overall gross margin was 65.3%, up 1.1 points sequentially but down 4.8 points year-over-year [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Systems and services revenues were $790 million, up 2.7% year-over-year [4] - Clear aligner revenues for Q4 were $838 million, up 5.5% year-over-year and up 4% sequentially [4][20] - Fiscal 2025 clear aligner revenues were $3.2 billion, up 0.5% year-over-year with record volumes of 2.6 million cases [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 clear aligner volume was a record 677,000 cases, up 7.7% year-over-year [5] - Strong growth in EMEA, Latin America, and APAC, with stability in North America [5] - In North America, clear aligner volumes were up year-over-year, with double-digit growth in Latin America [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Focus on expanding international adoption and increasing orthodontic utilization, particularly among teens and kids [36][38] - Strengthening partnerships with dental service organizations (DSOs) to drive digital dentistry adoption [6][9] - Continued investment in innovation, including AI-driven treatment planning and direct fabrication capabilities [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2026, emphasizing the importance of disciplined execution across regions and channels [36][39] - The macro environment remains dynamic, but the company is encouraged by progress in key customer segments [36] - Management highlighted the need for sustained momentum in North America and improving conversion rates [38] Other Important Information - Cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2025, were $1.0949 billion, up $90.3 million sequentially [30] - The company repurchased approximately 0.7 million shares at an average price of $142.87 during Q4 2025 [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Improved volume performance and its drivers - Management noted stability in markets and effective execution, particularly with DSOs driving growth [42][43] Question: Guidance assumptions for 2026 - Management expects markets to behave similarly to the second half of 2025, focusing on active conversion strategies [51][52] Question: DSO adoption curve and growth potential - Management indicated continued DSO penetration and growth opportunities, with many DSOs expanding globally [53][55] Question: Adult business performance and drivers - Management attributed improved adult business performance to DSOs, financial credit options, and effective patient conversion strategies [60][61] Question: North American retail business stability - Management reported improved stability in the North American retail business, aided by DSOs and a broader product portfolio [63][64] Question: ASP expectations for 2026 - Management anticipates ASPs to decline by 1%-2% year-over-year due to product and country mix [67][70] Question: Tax receipts and stimulus impact - Management did not plan around potential tax receipts but acknowledged them as possible upside [72]

Core Insights - Giverny Capital Asset Management's portfolio returned 0.01% in Q4 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 2.66% return, and YTD returns were 12.58% compared to the Index's 17.88% [1] - The firm faced challenges due to underweighting in large technology companies and overweighting in smaller niche leaders, despite strong earnings growth and capital returns from portfolio companies [1] - The market's focus on AI investments has overshadowed the actual benefits of portfolio companies, impacting overall performance [1] Company Insights - Align Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALGN) was highlighted in Giverny Capital Asset Management's Q4 2025 investor letter, noting a one-month return of 5.18% but a 52-week loss of 25.10% [2] - As of January 29, 2026, Align Technology's stock closed at $164.12 per share, with a market capitalization of $11.896 billion [2] - The company is recognized for its innovative product, Invisalign clear aligners, which are expected to gradually replace traditional braces, potentially impacting the orthodontist profession [3]

Company Overview - Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) has a market capitalization of $11.2 billion and specializes in developing and providing Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services globally [1] Financial Performance - The company is expected to announce its fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 4, with analysts predicting earnings of $2.47 per share, reflecting a 26% increase from $1.96 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For fiscal 2025, analysts forecast an EPS of $8.18, which represents a 16.7% increase from $7.01 in fiscal 2024 [3] - Following the Q3 2025 results on October 29, ALGN shares rose by 4.9%, with adjusted EPS reported at $2.61 and revenue at $995.7 million, surpassing consensus estimates [5] Market Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, ALGN stock has declined by 22.5%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 16.2%, and the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF, which returned 13.3% [4] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus rating for ALGN stock is "Moderate Buy," with 15 analysts providing coverage: eight rated it as "Strong Buy," six as "Hold," and one as "Moderate Sell" [6] - The average analyst price target for ALGN is $171.38, indicating a potential upside of 2.2% from current levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - Artisan Mid Cap Value Fund's performance in Q3 2025 was below the benchmark, with returns of approximately 0.97% compared to the Russell Midcap Value Index's 6.18% return, attributed to broader market conditions and specific sector challenges [1] Fund Performance - The Investor Class fund ARTQX returned 0.97%, Advisor Class fund APDQX returned 0.98%, and Institutional Class fund APHQX returned 0.97% in Q3 2025 [1] - The overall equity markets rallied, driven by strong corporate earnings, rising AI capital expenditures, and expectations of economic support from US fiscal policy and lower interest rates [1] Company Focus: Align Technology, Inc. - Align Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALGN) experienced a one-month return of -1.05% and a 52-week loss of 28.71%, with a market capitalization of $11.31 billion as of January 2, 2026 [2] - The company is recognized for its Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners, but faced underperformance in Q3 due to high expectations and disappointing quarterly results [3] Sector Analysis - The health care sector was a significant source of underperformance for the fund, with Align Technology being one of the major detractors alongside Centene and Baxter International [3] - The health care sector has struggled due to policy uncertainty, leading to reduced investor interest [3] Investment Strategy - The fund initiated a position in Align Technology at $150 per share, following a market sell-off due to tariff concerns, viewing it as a high-quality business with long-term potential [3] - Despite recent challenges, the company is seen as a market leader in clear aligners, with expectations that it can continue to capture market share in the orthodontics space [3]

Company Overview - Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) is based in Tempe, Arizona, and specializes in designing, manufacturing, and marketing Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners for orthodontists and general practitioners [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $11.4 billion, categorizing it as a large-cap stock, which reflects its significant size and influence in the medical instruments and supplies industry [2] Market Performance - ALGN's stock has experienced a decline of 33.1% from its 52-week high of $246.19, reached on December 11, 2024 [3] - Over the past three months, ALGN stock has gained 23.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which saw a gain of 5.4% during the same period [3] - In the longer term, ALGN shares have fallen 12.5% over six months and 30.6% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's six-month gains of 14% and 14.1% over the last year [4] Recent Financial Results - On October 29, ALGN reported its Q3 results, with an adjusted EPS of $2.61, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $2.37 [5] - The company's revenue for the quarter was $995.7 million, surpassing forecasts of $971.5 million [5] Competitive Landscape - ALGN's main competitor, DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. (XRAY), has underperformed, with a 29% decline over six months and a 40.4% drop over the past 52 weeks [5] Analyst Sentiment - Wall Street analysts maintain a reasonably bullish outlook on ALGN, with a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from 15 analysts [6] - The mean price target for ALGN is $174.54, indicating a potential upside of 6.1% from current price levels [6]

Core Insights - Meridian Growth Fund's third-quarter 2025 performance was negatively impacted by sector positioning and strict investment discipline, resulting in a return of -1.78% compared to the Russell 2500 Growth Index's 10.73% return [1] Company Overview: Align Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALGN) - Align Technology, Inc. is a leader in dental technology, known for its Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners [3] - The stock experienced a one-month return of 6.25% but has lost 37.14% over the past 52 weeks, closing at $147.19 with a market capitalization of $10.669 billion on November 28, 2025 [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Align Technology reported revenue of $995.7 million, reflecting a 1.7% decline from the previous quarter but a 1.8% increase year-over-year [4] Market Dynamics - The company faced challenges with demand rebound expectations not materializing, particularly in the teen segment where revenue growth slowed to 3% [3] - Market share gains reversed due to a weaker macroeconomic environment affecting discretionary dental procedures and a shift towards lower-cost alternatives [3] Investment Sentiment - Align Technology was held by 48 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, a decrease from 54 in the previous quarter, indicating a decline in popularity among hedge funds [4] - Despite its potential, the company is viewed as less favorable compared to certain AI stocks that are perceived to offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Core Insights - Align Technology, Inc. has a market capitalization of $10.2 billion and is recognized for its Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners, providing advanced orthodontic and restorative digital solutions globally [1] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Align Technology's shares have decreased by 37.5%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which gained 11% during the same period [2] - Year-to-date, the stock has dropped 31.6%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 12.3% [2] Recent Financial Results - Following the Q3 2025 results released on October 29, shares surged by 4.9%, with adjusted EPS at $2.61 and revenue reaching $995.7 million, surpassing consensus estimates [4] - Align Technology raised its Q4 revenue forecast to between $1.03 billion and $1.05 billion, anticipating mid-single-digit growth in Clear Aligner volumes [4] Earnings Expectations - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, analysts project a 16.7% year-over-year increase in EPS to $8.18 [5] - The company's earnings surprise history is mixed, with two beats and two misses in the last four quarters [5] Analyst Ratings - Among 14 analysts covering Align Technology, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of eight "Strong Buy" ratings, five "Holds," and one "Moderate Sell" [5] - This rating configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, which had nine "Strong Buy" ratings [6] Price Targets - Evercore ISI raised its price target on Align Technology to $170, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [7] - The mean price target of $173.25 indicates a potential upside of 21.5% from the current price, while the highest target of $205 suggests a 43.8% upside [7]

Company Overview - Align Technology's shares were priced at $133.14 as of October 28, 2025, with a market capitalization of $9.65 billion [3] - The company reported trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $3.96 billion and net income of $437.61 million [3] - Align Technology primarily generates revenue from Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners, serving orthodontists, general dentists, and dental specialists [4] Business Model - The business model is based on the sale of orthodontic treatment systems and related digital solutions, with recurring revenue from software, services, and ancillary products [4] - Align Technology operates at scale with over 21,000 employees and a diversified geographic footprint, targeting both adult and pediatric patients [5] Market Position - Despite competition, Align Technology maintains a significant market share, having shipped 647,800 cases in the third quarter, representing a 4.9% year-over-year increase [7][8] - The company is the only one allowed to market the Invisalign System, although it faces competition from companies like Angelalign Technology, which reported a 46.7% increase in global case volume in 2024 [7][8] Financial Performance - Align Technology's trailing 12-month revenue is approximately 1.2% lower than its peak in early 2022, indicating stagnation in the Invisalign business [6] - Earnings per share have decreased by 78% from a peak reached over five years ago, highlighting disappointing bottom-line performance [7] Recent Developments - Navera Investment Management Ltd. reduced its stake in Align Technology by 785,194 shares, valued at approximately $122.99 million, retaining only 2,365 shares post-sale [1][2] - As of the filing date, Align Technology's shares had underperformed the S&P 500 by 57.93 percentage points, down 38.3% over the past year [2]