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Lockheed Martin Stock Falls 6% in Six Months: What Should You Do?
ZACKS· 2025-12-08 14:01
Core Insights - Lockheed Martin's shares have declined by 6% over the past six months, underperforming the Aerospace-Defense industry's growth of 3.3% [1] - The company is facing challenges due to a shortage of skilled labor and significant losses in various fixed-price and classified programs [1][10] - Despite these challenges, Lockheed Martin's substantial contract wins and a robust backlog of $179.1 billion indicate a strong long-term revenue and growth outlook [3][4][21] Company Performance - Lockheed Martin secured major defense contracts in Q3 2025, including a $10.9 billion CH-53K helicopter deal and a $9.8 billion PAC-3 MSE interceptor order [3] - The company's backlog is expected to see approximately 36% recognized over the next 12 months and about 61% over the next 24 months, supporting long-term revenue prospects [4] - The company has a strong order flow with several programs entering growth phases, such as F-35 sustainment and increased PAC-3 production [5] Challenges - Lockheed Martin is experiencing operational and financial pressures due to workforce shortages and substantial program losses, with $950 million in losses recorded on a classified fixed-price incentive fee contract [10][11] - The aerospace-defense industry is facing an aging workforce and high attrition rates, complicating talent retention [10] Investment Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lockheed Martin's earnings per share (EPS) indicates a slight increase of 1.6% for 2025 and 0.88% for 2026 over the past 60 days [12] - The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 13.29% [14] Valuation Metrics - Lockheed Martin's trailing 12-month return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeds the peer group's average, indicating effective investment returns [16] - The stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.35X, which is a discount compared to the industry's average of 2.41X [18]