January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is up +0.76 (+1.38%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) is up +0.0166 (+0.99%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising today amid heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia.  President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned tankers off Venezuela, and the US is preparing new sanctions on Russian energy exports if Russia rejects a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.  Crude prices fell back from their best level after weekly EIA crude inventories fell less t ...

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) on Tuesday closed down -1.55 (-2.73%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed down -0.0514 (-2.97%). Crude oil and gasoline prices sold off on Tuesday, falling to 4.75-year nearest-futures lows.  Concerns about global energy demand and expectations for a worldwide oil glut are weighing on crude prices.  Also, Tuesday's decline in the S&P 500 to a 3-week low dampens optimism about the economic outlook, which is negative for energy demand.  In addition, the potential for a Ru ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have dropped to four-week lows, influenced by a strong dollar and geopolitical developments in Ukraine [2][3] - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, indicating an oversupply situation [5] - OPEC+ plans to increase production in December but will pause further hikes in early 2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus [6] Price Movements - January WTI crude oil is down by $1.23 (-2.08%) and January RBOB gasoline is down by $0.0362 (-1.96%) [1] - The dollar index has reached a 5.5-month high, contributing to bearish sentiment in energy prices [2] Geopolitical Factors - The potential for a peace plan in Ukraine has initially led to a drop in crude prices, although prices recovered after Ukraine and European allies rejected key points of the plan [2] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including the seizure of an oil tanker by Iran and US military actions regarding Venezuela, continue to support oil prices [4] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude exports have decreased significantly, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years [3] - Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries has reduced Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20%, impacting production by up to 1.1 million bpd [3] OPEC and Production Estimates - OPEC has identified a surplus of 500,000 bpd in global oil markets for Q3, a significant shift from a previously estimated deficit of 400,000 bpd [5] - OPEC's crude production increased by 50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6] - The IEA forecasts a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [6]