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对话汽车检测行业专家:智能驾驶L2国标出台的影响解读
2025-07-16 15:25
Summary of Conference Call on the Automotive Testing Industry Industry Overview - The mandatory automotive testing market in China is estimated to be around 80-100 billion RMB, with vehicle testing costs approximately 3 million RMB per model, and about 3,000 models requiring testing annually, leading to a market size of around 90 billion RMB [1][5][4]. - The non-mandatory testing market is about 1.5 times larger than the mandatory testing market, with significant growth in the new energy and intelligent connected vehicle sectors, while traditional sectors are declining [1][6]. Key Points on L2 Driving Assistance System Standards - The L2 driving assistance system national standard, titled "Technical Requirements and Specifications for Driving Assistance Vehicles," aims to enhance the safety of L2 functions, covering testing items such as lane changes and human-machine interaction in various complex scenarios [1][7]. - This standard applies to passenger vehicles (M category), including some pickup models, and requires compliance from joint venture brands [1][10]. - The L2 standard is the first comprehensive mandatory standard in China's intelligent connected vehicle history, consisting of over 130 pages of detailed requirements [1][11]. Market Dynamics and Impacts - Following the introduction of the L2 standard, new vehicles must comply within 13 months, while existing models have a 25-month compliance window, leading to increased testing demand for older models [2][14]. - Major testing institutions like the China Automotive Technology and Research Center and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute hold approximately 60-70% of the market share [2][16]. - The implementation of the L2 standard is expected to create a significant incremental market, potentially reaching tens of billions in additional market size due to increased testing requirements [12][11]. Testing Requirements and Challenges - The L2 standard imposes higher requirements on testing facilities, necessitating large areas (potentially over 2,000 acres) to accommodate various testing scenarios [18][19]. - There is a potential for capacity shortages in testing facilities as the demand for testing increases, especially with the anticipated influx of new models requiring compliance [19][20]. - Companies are exploring partnerships with third-party testing institutions to expedite compliance with standards, although they cannot fully outsource R&D testing due to the need for direct oversight and adjustments [21][22]. Future Considerations - The transition from the National V to National VI standards previously increased testing workloads significantly, indicating that future transitions (such as to National VII) may similarly impact testing institutions [23][24]. - The timeline for the National VII standard is uncertain, with potential implementation as early as 2027, depending on progress [24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the automotive testing industry, focusing on the implications of the new L2 standards and the evolving market landscape.