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京东方:管理层调研-2026 年 LCD 电视面板趋势向好;而 OLED 智能手机面板终端市场需求疲软
2026-01-19 02:32
Summary of BOE (000725.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (000725.SZ) - **Industry**: Display Panel Manufacturing Key Points LCD TV Panel Market - Management is optimistic about the LCD TV panel market in 2026, driven by sports events and recovery in the US market [1][2] - Full utilization rates were achieved in December 2025, with strong momentum continuing into January 2026 due to rising panel prices and consumption-driven policies in the US [2] - The demand for larger TV sizes is expected to increase, particularly in the US market, which is anticipated to be a major catalyst in the first half of 2026 [2] - The overall LCD TV area growth was only 1% YoY in 2025, but is expected to improve in 2026 [2] OLED Smartphone Panel Market - The OLED smartphone panel market is facing challenges due to a soft end-market and rising memory costs, which may hinder shipment growth in 2026 [1][3] - Management expects stable pricing for OLED panels, as current prices are already low [3] - There is potential for better growth in OLED panels for global-tier smartphone brands in 2026 compared to 2025, leveraging production experience from the previous year [3] - The foldable smartphone segment is expected to see stronger growth in 2026, especially with a leading global brand entering the market [3] Capacity Expansion - BOE's Gen-8.6 OLED facility was completed in December 2025 and is set to begin mass production in mid-2026, with depreciation starting in 2027 [1][7] - Management highlighted that depreciation peaked in 2025, which will support cash flow in the coming years [7] Financial Outlook - BOE is rated Neutral with a 12-month target price of RMB 4.79, reflecting a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.9x, which is in line with the company's average [1][8] - Revenue projections for 2026 are estimated at RMB 221.4 billion, with EBITDA expected to reach RMB 47.8 billion [1][10] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include the pace of flexible OLED shipment growth, market share gains in both large-sized LCD and small-sized flexible OLED panels, and the ramp-up speed at new factories [1][9] - The competitive landscape in the OLED smartphone market remains a concern, with potential for healthier pricing competition if the number of major suppliers decreases [3] Additional Insights - The management's mixed tone regarding the LCD and OLED markets reflects the current competitive dynamics and market conditions [1] - The anticipated increase in LCD TV prices in 2026 compared to 2025 suggests a positive trend for the company, despite challenges in the OLED segment [2][3] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding BOE's market outlook, financial projections, and associated risks.