Core Viewpoint - Generac Holdings has experienced a significant stock surge of 56.65% year-to-date, attributed to its strategic pivot towards data centers, which is yielding positive results [2][8]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2026, Generac reported revenue of $1.09 billion, missing the expected $1.18 billion, and adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share, below the $1.80 estimate. The company also recorded a GAAP net loss of $24 million due to a $104.5 million legal settlement [3]. - Residential sales declined by 23% year-over-year to $572 million, primarily due to weak power outage activity [4]. Data Center Strategy - CEO Aaron Jagdfeld indicated a fundamental shift in the company's position within the data center market, highlighting accelerated momentum and the potential for significant backlog growth from hyperscale customers [5]. - The commercial and industrial segment, which includes data center power solutions, grew by 10% in Q4 to $400 million. Generac is expanding its manufacturing capacity to meet anticipated multi-year growth [5][6]. Future Outlook - Management's guidance for 2026 anticipates mid-teens revenue growth, with commercial and industrial sales expected to increase by approximately 30% driven by data center demand and the Allmand acquisition. Residential sales are projected to grow around 10% if power outage activity normalizes [7][8]. - Generac has initiated a $500 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its future growth prospects [8].

Core Viewpoint - Generac's stock surged over 17% following a positive AI-driven growth forecast despite a decline in fourth-quarter net sales and profits [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Generac reported a 12% year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter net sales, totaling $1.1 billion [4]. - Residential product sales fell by 23% to $572 million, attributed to fewer power outages leading to lower portable generator shipments [4]. - In contrast, commercial and industrial product revenue increased by 10% to $400 million, driven by higher sales to data center customers [4]. - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $95 million, or $1.61 per share, down from $168 million, or $2.80 per share, in the same quarter last year [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Generac anticipates full-year sales growth in the mid-teens percentage range for 2026, with a projected 10% increase in residential product sales due to normalized power outage activity [6]. - The company expects commercial and industrial sales to grow by 30%, bolstered by the expansion of its data center business [6]. - CEO Aaron Jagdfeld highlighted ongoing investments in manufacturing capabilities, including the acquisition of a new facility in Wisconsin, aimed at doubling commercial and industrial product sales in the coming years [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter overall net sales decreased 12% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, down from $1.2 billion in the prior year [26] - Adjusted EBITDA margins for the fourth quarter were 17%, consistent with expectations despite a weaker outage environment [4] - Gross profit margin decreased to 36.3% from 40.6% in the prior year, primarily due to unfavorable sales mix and a $15.6 million net inventory provision [30] - GAAP net loss for the quarter was $24 million, compared to net income of $117 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 [33] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $95 million, or $1.61 per share, down from $168 million, or $2.80 per share in the prior year [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Residential product sales decreased 23% to $572 million, impacted by lower shipments of home standby and portable generators due to weak power outage activity [27] - Commercial and industrial (C&I) product sales increased 10% to $400 million, driven by revenue from data center customers [28] - International core total sales increased 5% during the fourth quarter, primarily due to revenue from data center customers [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog for data center products has grown to approximately $400 million, indicating strong future demand [6] - Home standby shipments decreased 25% year-over-year, reflecting the lowest level of total outage hours in a decade [17] - The average power prices in the U.S. have increased nearly 40% over the last five years, with expectations to double again in the next decade [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its manufacturing capacity for large megawatt generators to meet the growing demand in the data center market [7] - Significant investments have been made in partnerships with hyperscalers, with expectations of substantial order volumes in 2027 and 2028 [5] - The company aims to double its C&I product sales in the coming years, capitalizing on the generational growth opportunity presented by data center investments [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the power outage environment has been soft, impacting home standby and portable generator shipments, but expects a return to more normal levels in 2026 [18] - The company anticipates strong growth in C&I product sales, projecting an increase of over 30% in 2026, primarily driven by data center customers [38] - Management expressed confidence in the progress made in the data center market and expects 2026 to be an inflection point for growth [25] Other Important Information - The company has initiated 2026 net sales guidance projecting mid-teens growth compared to the prior year [37] - Capital expenditures for the full year are projected to be approximately 3.5% of forecasted net sales, focusing on incremental capacity investments [44] - The company has approved a new share repurchase authorization allowing for the repurchase of up to $500 million of shares over the next 24 months [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Progress with hyperscalers - Management confirmed that while there are no significant orders yet, they are in pilot phases with two hyperscale customers and expect to sign longer-term supply agreements soon [49][52] Question: Competitive environment in the data center market - Management indicated that the market for large megawatt diesel generators has not changed significantly in terms of participants, with limited new entrants due to high investment requirements [58] Question: Growth profile for the data center market - Management estimates the total addressable market for data center backup generators could be as much as $15 billion annually, with a target market share of 10-15% [66] Question: Residential product demand and cost structure - Management highlighted a projected mid-teens growth rate for residential products, with half of the growth expected from price realization and the other half from volume increases as outages normalize [79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall net sales for Q4 2025 decreased by 12% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, down from $1.2 billion in Q4 2024 [24][25] - Adjusted EBITDA margins for Q4 2025 were 17%, consistent with expectations despite a weaker power outage environment [4][28] - Gross profit margin decreased to 36.3% from 40.6% in the prior year, primarily due to unfavorable sales mix and a $15.6 million inventory provision [26][27] - GAAP net loss for Q4 2025 was $24 million, compared to net income of $117 million in Q4 2024 [31][32] - Adjusted net income for Q4 2025 was $95 million, or $1.61 per share, down from $168 million, or $2.80 per share in the prior year [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Residential product sales decreased by 23% to $572 million in Q4 2025, impacted by lower shipments of home standby and portable generators due to reduced power outage activity [25][27] - Commercial and industrial (CNI) product sales increased by 10% to $400 million, driven by revenue from data center customers [25][26] - International core total sales increased by 5% in Q4 2025, primarily due to data center customer sales [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog for data center products grew to approximately $400 million, indicating strong future demand [5][16] - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) predicts that nearly half of the U.S. population will face power supply shortfalls in the next five years due to increasing demand and grid instability [9][10] - Average power prices in the U.S. have increased nearly 40% over the last five years, with expectations to double again in the next decade [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its manufacturing capacity for large megawatt generators to meet the growing demand in the data center market [6][17] - Significant investments have been made in new manufacturing facilities and product innovations, including the launch of next-generation home standby generators and energy storage systems [7][11] - The company aims to double its CNI product sales in the coming years, capitalizing on the growth opportunities presented by the data center investment cycle [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the home standby generator market as power outages are expected to return to normal levels [18][21] - The company anticipates strong growth in CNI product sales, projecting a growth rate of over 30% for 2026, primarily driven by data center customers [36] - Management highlighted the importance of addressing the challenges posed by rising energy costs and the need for backup power solutions [11][12] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a new share repurchase authorization allowing for the repurchase of up to $500 million of shares over the next 24 months [34] - Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $170 million, or 4% of net sales, focused on supporting future CNI growth [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Progress with hyperscalers - Management confirmed that while there are no significant orders yet, they are in pilot phases with two hyperscale customers and expect to sign long-term supply agreements soon [47][48] Question: Competitive environment in the data center market - Management noted that the market for large megawatt diesel generators remains stable with limited new entrants due to high barriers to entry [56][58] Question: Growth profile for the data center market - Management estimates the total addressable market for data center backup generators could reach $15 billion annually, with a target market share of 10-15% [62][64] Question: Home standby generator business trends - Management indicated that mid-teens growth in home standby sales is expected, driven by price realization and a return to normal outage levels [72][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall net sales decreased 5% year-over-year to $1.11 billion from $1.17 billion [4][24] - Residential net sales declined 13% to $627 million compared to $723 million in the prior year [24] - Commercial and industrial (C&I) product sales increased 9% to $358 million from $328 million in the prior year [25] - Gross profit margin was 38.3%, down from 40.2% in the prior year [26] - Adjusted EBITDA was $193 million, representing 17.3% of net sales, compared to $232 million or 19.8% in the prior year [27] - GAAP net income was $66 million, down from $114 million in the prior year [28] - Diluted net income per share was $1.12, compared to $1.89 in the prior year [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home standby and portable generator shipments grew sequentially but were below seasonal expectations due to a low power outage environment [4][5] - Global C&I product sales increased 9%, driven by domestic telecom and industrial distributor channels [4] - Sales of residential energy technology solutions grew significantly, led by energy storage systems in Puerto Rico [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International sales increased 11%, benefiting from strong C&I product shipments in Europe and initial shipments to data center customers in Australia [17] - The backlog for large megawatt generators doubled to over $300 million in the last 90 days, indicating strong demand in the data center market [5][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging new products and marketing capabilities to drive market share gains and significant sales growth [14] - Plans to recalibrate investment levels in response to a contracting market environment expected in 2026 due to reduced federal incentives [14] - The company aims to expand capacity and capabilities for C&I products, particularly in the data center market, with expectations of doubling C&I product sales over the next three to five years [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the low outage environment has negatively impacted demand for home standby and portable generators, but structural trends indicate ongoing challenges with power reliability [21][22] - The company anticipates a contraction in the solar and storage market in 2026 but remains optimistic about long-term growth due to rising electricity prices and declining component costs [14][59] - Management expressed confidence in the data center market's growth potential, with significant backlog and ongoing discussions with hyperscalers [19][46] Other Important Information - The company expects consolidated net sales for the full year 2025 to be approximately flat compared to the prior year, with a shift in sales mix impacting gross and adjusted EBITDA margins [32][33] - Free cash flow is projected to be approximately $300 million for fiscal 2025, providing flexibility for future investments [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: What have you learned about the data center market opportunity? - The company sees a unique opportunity in the data center market due to supply constraints and ongoing demand for backup power solutions [44][45] - Conversations with hyperscalers are productive, and the company is optimistic about becoming an approved supplier [46] Question: How should we think about 2026 with the current moving parts? - Management indicated that the weak outage environment is temporary and expects a return to growth in residential products if outages normalize [53][55] - The company anticipates a contraction in the solar and storage market but remains confident in long-term growth potential [59][60] Question: What are the biggest challenges in adding capacity quickly? - The company is confident in its ability to bring new products online and has made significant upgrades to its facilities to support this [87] - Supply chain constraints are not expected to be a major issue, as the engine partner has ample capacity [88]