Starting in January 2026, Mexico officially raised tariffs on Light Vehicles (LVs) from 20% to 50%, applying only to countries that do not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in place. While the change in rate affects many markets, we expect the most significant impact to be felt in China and India. These measures have been under discussion for months and were formally announced by the Mexican government in mid-December. In recent years, sales of Chinese-made vehicles have rapidly increased in Mexico, incl ...

Summary of Global Auto Databook - June 03, 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global automotive industry, specifically analyzing sales trends, forecasts, and market dynamics across various regions including North America, Europe, Asia, and others [2][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments Global Sales Estimates - The report provides detailed sales estimates for light vehicles across different regions, highlighting significant growth and decline percentages over the years [5][6]. - For instance, in China, light vehicle sales are projected to grow from 21.0 million in 2022 to 21.6 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% [5]. Regional Insights - **North America**: - U.S. light vehicle sales are expected to recover from 13.9 million in 2022 to 16.3 million in 2025, with a notable growth of 12.9% in 2023 [5]. - The market share of major OEMs like Ford and GM is analyzed, showing fluctuations in sales and inventory levels [12][14]. - **Europe**: - The report notes that European sales growth excludes light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales, indicating a focus on passenger vehicles [2]. - Total vehicle sales in Europe are projected to increase from 15.1 million in 2022 to 18.0 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.1% [5]. - **Asia**: - The Asian market, particularly China, is highlighted for its rapid recovery and growth potential, with sales expected to stabilize post-pandemic [5]. - Japan and South Korea show varied trends, with Japan's sales projected to recover slightly to 4.7 million by 2025 [5]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of national security on the automotive industry, suggesting that current geopolitical tensions may accelerate the adoption of AI in manufacturing and production processes [2]. - The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is emphasized, with EV sales expected to grow significantly, from 7.6 million in 2022 to 12.4 million in 2025, marking a 59.7% increase [5]. Pricing and Inventory Trends - The analysis includes insights on gas prices and their impact on vehicle sales, noting a year-over-year decrease of 11.80% in gas prices as of April 2025 [16]. - Inventory levels are also discussed, with a significant reduction in days' supply for various vehicle segments, indicating a tightening market [12][14]. Financing and Leasing Trends - The report highlights trends in vehicle financing, noting an increase in the percentage of vehicles financed and leased, which reflects changing consumer preferences [19][20]. - The share of new vehicles that are leased has been steadily increasing, indicating a shift towards more flexible ownership models [19]. Additional Important Content - The report includes a variety of data sources, including Autodata and Morgan Stanley Research, ensuring a comprehensive analysis of the automotive market [2][5]. - It also addresses potential conflicts of interest due to Morgan Stanley's business relationships with covered companies, urging investors to consider this in their decision-making [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the Global Auto Databook, providing a comprehensive overview of the automotive industry's current state and future outlook.