March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed down -0.23 (-1.54%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -7.00 (-1.64%). Higher global sugar production is weighing on prices.  On Wednesday, Unica reported that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through December rose by +0.9% y/y to 40.222 MMT.  Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.82% in 2025/36 from 48.16% in 2024/25. More News from Barchart On Monday, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) repor ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, with NY sugar reaching a 2-week high and London sugar a 1-week high, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which discourages exports [1] - Increased sugar production in India and Brazil has led to a bearish outlook for sugar prices, with India reporting a significant year-on-year production increase [2][5] - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 has been raised, contributing to expectations of a sugar surplus in the coming years [3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.25 (+1.68%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +5.20 (+1.23%) [1] - The Brazilian real's rally to a 1-week high against the dollar has sparked short covering in sugar futures, impacting export sales [1] Group 2: Production Trends - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with more mills crushing cane compared to the previous year [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT, with a reported +8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025/26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, reflecting a significant upward revision from previous estimates [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have experienced fluctuations due to varying production levels in major producing countries, with recent data indicating a bearish outlook for future prices driven by increased output in India and Brazil [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - On March 1, NY world sugar 11 closed up by 0.24 (+1.64%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up by 7.30 (+1.74%) due to dollar weakness prompting short-covering in sugar futures [1]. - Sugar prices have retreated to three-week lows recently, primarily due to increased production in India and Brazil [2]. Group 2: Production Insights - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production, with a 43% year-on-year rise to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the period of October-November [2]. - Brazil's Conab raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, reflecting a positive outlook for Brazilian sugar output [3]. - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons (MT) in the first half of November, contributing to the overall increase in sugar production [3]. Group 3: Global Supply and Surplus Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4]. - A robust global sugar supply has negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, indicating a growing concern over sugar supply outpacing demand [5]. Group 4: India’s Production and Export Potential - The ISMA has raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may enhance India's export capabilities [6]. - The reduction in the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India from 5 MMT to 3.4 MMT may further support increased sugar exports [6].