Market Overview - The bulls have dominated Wall Street for nearly three years, with major indexes showing significant gains [1] - In 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increased by 13%, 16%, and 20% respectively, achieving multiple record-closing highs [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. money supply, particularly M2, is reaching historical levels, with M2 hitting an all-time high of $22.411 trillion in December 2025 [8] - M2's growth is traditionally seen as a positive sign for a bull market, as it indicates a growing economy requiring more capital for transactions [8] Concerns and Warnings - Despite the positive outlook, the expansion of M2 money supply has not kept pace with the tech-driven rally on Wall Street, raising concerns about sustainability [9] - The overwhelming optimism in the market, driven by artificial intelligence advancements and anticipated interest rate cuts, may not be sustainable in the long term [3]

Core Insights - Wall Street is experiencing a strong year with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite up by 13%, 15%, and 19% respectively as of December 18 [2] - The upcoming year may see significant volatility influenced by the artificial intelligence revolution, quantum computing, and the Federal Reserve's rate-easing cycle [3] Money Supply Analysis - U.S. M2 money supply has shown unprecedented changes over the past three years, with a notable decline in 2023 reminiscent of the Great Depression [9] - M2 includes various forms of money such as savings accounts and money market accounts, indicating a broader measure of money available in the economy compared to M1 [6][7] - Historical trends suggest that a volatile stock market may be anticipated in the new year based on the patterns of M2 money supply [5][9]