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3 REITs To Ascend In 2026
Seeking Alphaยท 2025-12-29 09:45
Core Insights - REIT investment has significantly declined since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022, leading to a lack of investor interest in real estate [1][2] - The average REIT's Price to FFO (Funds From Operations) multiple has dropped from 20.7x in December 2021 to 13.7x in December 2025, with a corresponding increase in the discount to Net Asset Value (NAV) from 6.98% to 14.84% [2][3] REIT Market Dynamics - The current unpopularity of real estate investment is characterized by multiple compression and increased discounting, indicating potential opportunities for further analysis beyond average metrics [3] - Various operational issues have contributed to the decline in share prices for many REITs, with specific companies facing multiple challenges [4] Company-Specific Analysis - **Armada Hoffler (AHH)**: Shares are trading at approximately $6.58, representing about 52% of a $12.57 consensus NAV estimate. Analysts project a 2026 FFO/share of $1.08, suggesting a potential price range of $10.70 to $14.80 if it aligns with average REIT multiples [10] - **Easterly Government Properties (DEA)**: Currently priced at $21.20, which is 65% of the consensus NAV of $32.42/share. The FFO multiple stands at 6.86x, with potential pricing ranging from $27.60 to $42.33 if market multiples are achieved [13] - **Global Medical REIT (GMRE)**: Shares are trading at $33.40, about two-thirds of the $51.11 consensus NAV. The FFO estimate is $4.08/share, with potential pricing between $43.44 and $55.90 if it reaches average market multiples [15] Investment Opportunities - The current market presents extreme discounts on REITs, driven by a multi-year trend of stock market gains and the hype surrounding Artificial Intelligence, which has overshadowed real estate investments [17] - Increased interest from private equity firms in acquiring discounted REIT portfolios indicates a growing recognition of potential value in the sector [19]