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1 Top Growth Stock Down 33% to Buy Hand Over Fist (Hint: It May Become a Multibagger)
The Motley Foolยท 2025-11-23 10:20
Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock has declined 36% from its 52-week high despite reporting strong earnings, raising concerns among investors about its future prospects and reliance on OpenAI for revenue growth [3][4][6]. Financial Performance - Oracle reported a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue to $14.9 billion and a significant 359% increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $455 billion, indicating potential for accelerated revenue growth [4]. - The company has upgraded its fiscal 2029 revenue estimate to $185 billion from $104 billion and expects $225 billion in fiscal 2030, suggesting an annual growth rate of 31% from fiscal 2025 [5]. Debt and Financial Strategy - Oracle's debt exceeded $111 billion, significantly higher than its cash position of $11 billion, raising concerns about its financial health as it plans to take on an additional $38 billion in debt for AI infrastructure expansion [6][7]. Revenue Backlog and Partnerships - A major concern is Oracle's reliance on a five-year, $300 billion contract with OpenAI, which constitutes a large portion of its RPO, leading to worries about OpenAI's ability to fulfill its financial commitments [8][9]. - OpenAI aims for an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $20 billion by 2025 and plans to scale revenue into "hundreds of billions" by 2030, which could positively impact Oracle's revenue if successful [10][11][12]. Growth Opportunities - Oracle's multicloud database revenue has surged by 1,529% in fiscal Q1, and the company plans to build 37 additional multicloud data centers, increasing its total to 71, indicating strong growth potential beyond its partnership with OpenAI [13][14]. - The productivity gains expected from AI are anticipated to help Oracle convert its backlog into revenue, supporting long-term growth [15]. Investment Consideration - Oracle's stock is currently trading at 32 times forward earnings, slightly below the Nasdaq-100 index's multiple of 33, suggesting it may be a good buying opportunity for investors [16]. - If Oracle achieves its earnings estimate of $21 per share by fiscal 2030, its stock price could potentially reach $672, more than three times its current price [16][17].