Core Insights - The National Truckload Index (NTI) rose by 2% last week, from $2.31 to $2.36 per mile, indicating a notable development in the trucking sector despite the lack of seasonal support and muted truckload tender rejections [1][2] - The increase in NTI has occurred more than 2% in a single week seven times in 2025, typically preceded by a rise in tender rejection rates, although there are instances where spot market reactions occur first [2] - Recent disruptions in the trucking industry are attributed to crackdowns on illegal immigration, leading to foreign-born operators being advised to avoid driving due to increased risks [3][4] Industry Dynamics - As of 2021, approximately 18% of the driver population in the U.S. were foreign-born, with 60% being Latino and the remaining 40% from Eastern Europe and India, many of whom work for smaller fleets or as owner-operators [4] - Larger carriers, which dominate contract freight, are less impacted by immigration crackdowns, while the spot market, primarily composed of smaller carriers and owner-operators, is more sensitive to these enforcement activities [5] - The spot market constitutes an estimated 15-20% of total domestic freight volume, and without support from the larger contracted segment, it is uncertain whether recent changes represent a significant shift or a temporary disruption [6]