Led by precious metals, namely gold and silver, broader measures of commodities are delivering for investors in 2025. For example, the Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) is higher by nearly 18%. 2025 is in its waning stages. However, with an eye toward next year, the actively managed NBCM could be in for another strong annual showing. In fact, the fund's statuses as actively managed and a broad play on the commodities complex could be positive traits. This is particularly true at a time when som ...

Core Insights - Gold is expected to be a leading commodity in 2025, driven by a weakening dollar and other factors [1] - The Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) has a significant allocation to gold, enhancing its performance this year [2][3] - NBCM's active management allows for flexible adjustments in commodity exposure, particularly to gold and silver, which are anticipated to benefit from rising bullion prices [3] Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is supported by fundamental factors such as geopolitical tensions, economic policies, and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve [4] - Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,400 per troy ounce, up from a previous estimate of $3,313, indicating potential appreciation [5] - Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar and enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Historical Context - Historically, gold prices have risen by an average of 6% in the 60 days following the initiation of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, as lower yields make gold more attractive [8]

Core Insights - Gold and silver are among the best-performing assets this year, reaching all-time highs and significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) is benefiting from its substantial allocation to precious metals, confirming the advantages of including them in a diversified investment strategy [2][3] Group 1: Performance of Precious Metals - Gold and silver have generated returns that exceed those of the S&P 500, making them standout assets in the current market [1] - NBCM, which is actively managed, has also outperformed the S&P 500 this year, highlighting the effectiveness of its investment strategy [2] Group 2: Allocation and Strategy - As of the end of the second quarter, precious metals represented the largest sector exposure in NBCM, with a 17.7% allocation to gold, which is more than double the ETF's second-largest exposure [3] - The management style of NBCM allows for flexibility in increasing exposure to gold and silver, especially during a period rich with catalysts for these metals [4] Group 3: Market Catalysts - Factors driving gold prices include ongoing purchases by global central banks and the anticipated lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which enhances gold's appeal as it does not yield dividends or interest [5] - Silver has experienced a significant rally, reaching prices not seen since the 1980s, although it may be showing signs of a temporary peak [6] Group 4: Supply Dynamics - The market for silver is characterized by structural deficits, with five consecutive years of global supply shortfalls leading to a persistent short squeeze [7] - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by lagging industrial recycling volumes and strong import activity from India, indicating robust demand for silver [7]