United Homes Group (UHG) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 07, 2025 08:30 AM ET Speaker0Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the United Homes Group Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call and Webcast. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I will now hand today's call over to Erin Reeves McGinnis, General Counsel.Please go ahead.S ...

Core Insights - Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) reported revenue of $223.92 million for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.4% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was -$0.13, a decline from $0.40 a year ago, indicating a significant drop in profitability [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $216.52 million by 3.42%, while the EPS fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.25 by 152% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Net new home orders were 736, slightly below the average estimate of 757 from two analysts [4] - The backlog of homes at the end of the period was 858, compared to the estimated 904 [4] - Home closings totaled 669, surpassing the average estimate of 644 [4] - The number of active communities at the end of the period was 92, exceeding the average estimate of 89 [4] - The average selling price (ASP) of homes closed was $335 million, slightly below the average estimate of $336.31 million [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Smith Douglas Homes Corp. have returned +1.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.5% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, home closing revenue was $1.6 billion, a 5% decrease year-over-year despite a 1% increase in closing volume, primarily due to increased financing incentives [22][30] - Adjusted home closing gross margin was 21.4%, down from 25.9% in Q2 2024, reflecting higher lock costs and increased use of financing incentives [22][27] - Diluted EPS decreased by 35% year-over-year to $2.04 from $3.15 in Q2 2024 [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured orders for 3,914 homes in Q2 2025, with a strong average absorption pace of 4.3 net sales per month [5][13] - Home deliveries totaled 4,170 homes, with backlog conversion exceeding 200% [5][19] - The cancellation rate remained at 10%, lower than historical averages, attributed to a 60-day closing commitment [13][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Central Region had the highest average absorption pace of 5.2, followed by the East at 4.1, and the West at 3.9 [17] - Demand was strong in markets like Arizona, Dallas, Houston, and Southern California, while Florida and Colorado faced challenges due to increased existing inventory [17][18] - The average selling price (ASP) on orders decreased by 5% year-over-year to $387,000 due to greater utilization of rate buy-down financing incentives [14][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on move-in ready inventory and financing incentives to enhance competitiveness in a challenging market [5][8] - An agile business model allows the company to optimize operations and land strategy on a market-by-market basis [11][12] - The company aims for double-digit year-over-year growth in community count, with plans for further expansion in the second half of the year [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that home buying demand has softened due to increased mortgage rates and consumer hesitancy [6][27] - Despite current challenges, management remains optimistic about long-term industry outlook due to favorable demographic trends [7][8] - The company is adjusting its capital allocation strategy to balance land spending and shareholder returns [30][32] Other Important Information - The company reduced land acquisition and development spending by 12% year-over-year to $509 million in Q2 2025 [30] - Share buybacks totaled $45 million in Q2 2025, with a commitment to continue repurchasing shares opportunistically [32][33] - The company maintained a healthy balance sheet with cash of $930 million and no drawn credit facility [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Absorption rates on new communities - Management reported that absorption rates have trended well, with new communities meeting expectations [41] Question: Community count growth expectations - Management expects double-digit growth in community count, with a balanced flow between Q3 and Q4 [43][44] Question: Volume outlook for the remainder of the year - Management indicated that Q3 is expected to be one of the lowest volume quarters due to closed spring demand, but they have the inventory to achieve projected numbers [51] Question: Cash capital allocation and buyback acceleration - Management confirmed plans to accelerate share buybacks due to reduced land spending, balancing cash utilization for new specs [54][56] Question: Gross margin expectations - Management noted that the decline in gross margin is primarily due to lost leverage in Q3, with expectations for recovery in Q4 depending on market conditions [76][81]

Second Quarter 2025 Performance - Orders decreased by 32% from 1,651 in 2Q24 to 1,131 in 2Q25[20] - Deliveries decreased by 22% from 1,700 in 2Q24 to 1,326 in 2Q25[20] - Home sales revenue decreased by 22% from $1,133 million in 2Q24 to $880 million in 2Q25[20] - Net income available to common stockholders decreased by 49% from $118 million in 2Q24 to $61 million in 2Q25[20] - Diluted EPS decreased by 46% from $1.25 in 2Q24 to $0.68 in 2Q25[20] Backlog and Active Communities - Backlog units decreased by 44% from 2,692 in 2Q24 to 1,520 in 2Q25[20] - Backlog dollar value decreased by 41% from $2 billion in 2Q24 to $1.2 billion in 2Q25[20] - Ending active selling communities decreased by 1% from 153 in 2Q24 to 151 in 2Q25[20] Financial Metrics - Homebuilding gross margin decreased by 280 bps to 20.8% in 2Q25[20] - Adjusted homebuilding gross margin decreased by 190 bps to 25.2% in 2Q25[20] - SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenue increased by 160 bps to 12.6% in 2Q25[20] Land Supply - Total lots owned or controlled as of June 30, 2025, were 34,025, with 16,523 owned (49%) and 17,502 controlled (51%)[62,72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, the company reported a pretax income of $47 million and a net income of $35 million, translating to $1.14 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $42 million or $1.37 per diluted share [14] - Home sales revenues for Q2 2025 were $976 million, up 10% sequentially due to higher deliveries, with deliveries of 2,587 homes, which was flat year over year [14][15] - The average sales price decreased by 3% year over year to $378,000, primarily due to increased incentives [16] - The company’s book value per share increased by 10% year over year to $86.39, a record for the company [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net new contracts totaled 2,546 homes in Q2 2025, with both orders and absorption rates increasing sequentially in May and June [9] - The company started 2,485 homes in Q2 2025, maintaining a focus on matching starts with sales [12] - Adjusted homebuilding gross margin was 20% compared to 21.6% in Q1 2025, driven by increased incentive levels [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s community count increased to 327 communities at the end of Q2 2025, a record for the company [9] - The company expects its year-end 2025 community count to increase in the mid-single-digit percentage range [6][10] - The Southeast market, particularly Atlanta, Charlotte, and Nashville, has shown strong performance, while California and Colorado are experiencing some challenges [28][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a disciplined approach to land investment, having reduced its controlled lot count by 12,000 lots in Q2 2025 [13][23] - The company aims to balance pace and price at the community level to optimize returns, rather than pursuing growth for its own sake [6] - The company is taking a balanced approach towards capital allocation, having repurchased $48 million of its shares in Q2 2025 [6][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that order activity for new homes has been impacted by elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and economic uncertainty, but they see underlying demand for affordable new homes [4][5] - The company anticipates that incentives will continue to be the largest driver of changes to gross margins in the near term [11] - Management expressed confidence in the company’s ability to manage costs and maintain a solid balance sheet despite market headwinds [13][20] Other Important Information - The company maintained its quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share and has no senior debt maturities until June, providing flexibility in leverage management [19][20] - The company was recognized as one of the best companies to work for by U.S. News and World Report [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about land investment in the second half of the year? - The company plans to reduce land investment and has already dropped about 12,000 lots in Q2 2025, focusing on more disciplined underwriting [23][24] Question: Can you discuss the mortgage products buyers are using? - The company reports that about 70% of buyers are using governmental loans and 30% are using conventional loans, with an increasing acceptance of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) [26] Question: What are the drivers behind lowering the 2025 deliveries guidance? - The revision was driven by the expectation of slower demand in the third quarter, particularly in July and August, which are typically slower months [27][28] Question: What is the company's exposure to Canadian lumber and potential tariffs? - The company sources between 20% to 30% of its lumber from Canada and is monitoring the situation regarding potential tariffs [50] Question: Can you provide details on the community count and orders? - The community count increased significantly in June, which did not benefit orders in the earlier months of the quarter [58] Question: What is the current average build time and potential for improvement? - The average build time is currently around four months, with ongoing improvements expected [69][70] Question: What types of incentives are being offered for finished spec inventory? - The company is using a mix of rate buy-downs and price cuts to incentivize buyers [71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Earnings for Q3 2025 were $3.36 per diluted share, down from $4.10 in the prior year quarter [11] - Consolidated revenues for the quarter were $9.2 billion, with a pre-tax income of $1.4 billion and a pre-tax profit margin of 14.7% [7][11] - Net income for the quarter was $1 billion, with home sales revenues of $8.6 billion on 23,160 homes closed, compared to $9.2 billion on 24,155 homes closed in the prior year quarter [11][12] - The cancellation rate for the quarter was 17%, up from 16% sequentially but down from 18% in the prior year quarter [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home sales gross margin was 21.8%, stable sequentially but expected to decrease in Q4 due to increased sales incentives [13] - Homebuilding SG&A expenses increased 2% year-over-year, with SG&A as a percentage of revenues at 7.8%, up 70 basis points from the prior year [14] - Rental operations generated $55 million of pre-tax income on $381 million of revenues from single-family and multifamily rental homes [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average closing price for the quarter was $369,600, down 1% sequentially and down 3% year-over-year [11] - The average number of active selling communities was up 4% sequentially and up 12% year-over-year [12] - The company ended the quarter with 38,400 homes in inventory, of which 25,000 were unsold [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on maximizing capital efficiency and generating substantial operating cash flows while delivering returns to shareholders [9] - The strategic relationship with Forestar, a majority-owned residential lot development company, is vital for providing finished lots to the homebuilding industry [20] - The company plans to repurchase $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion of common stock in fiscal 2025, subject to cash flow and share price changes [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that new home demand is impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, with expectations for elevated sales incentives in Q4 [10] - The company has a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term, despite current economic volatility [25] - Management expects consolidated revenues for the full year of fiscal 2025 to be approximately $33.7 billion to $34.2 billion [24] Other Important Information - The company has a strong balance sheet with low leverage and healthy liquidity, totaling $5.5 billion of consolidated liquidity at June 30 [22] - The return on equity for the trailing twelve months ended June 30 was 16.1%, with a return on assets of 11.1% [23] - The company repurchased 9.7 million shares during the quarter for $1.2 billion, reducing the outstanding share count by 9% from a year ago [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in incentives and competitive pressures - Management indicated that incentives have been choppy throughout the quarter, responding to market conditions and competition [30] Question: Consumer strength and impact of student loan repayments - Management noted an increase in FHA product selection among buyers but did not see significant impacts from student loan repayments [34] Question: Fourth quarter gross margin outlook - Management expects a decline in gross margin due to higher incentives, despite a strong performance in Q3 [39] Question: Community count and market management - Management anticipates moderation in community count as they manage inventory and respond to market absorption rates [56] Question: Resale inventory competition - Management does not see significant competition from resale inventory, as new home construction remains attractive to buyers [82]

Core Thesis - Meritage Homes (MTH) is positioned to gain market share and deliver homes efficiently while returning capital to shareholders, despite a challenging housing market outlook [1][2] Industry Overview - The U.S. housing market is currently undersupplied by 3.7 million units, contributing to decreased housing affordability [3] - The average sales price of new homes in the U.S. increased from approximately $332,000 in February 2020 to around $404,000 in March 2025 [5] Company Performance - Meritage Homes has increased its market share of U.S. new one-family homes from 1.3% in 2017 to 2.3% in the TTM [6] - The company recorded its second-highest first-quarter orders and closings in 1Q25, with 61% of homes closed sold within the same quarter, up from 48% the previous year [8][10] - Revenue and net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) grew by 11% and 17% respectively from 2014 through TTM ending 1Q25, with NOPAT margin improving from 7% in 2014 to 11% in TTM [12] Financial Metrics - Meritage Homes generated $1.1 billion in free cash flow (FCF) from 2019 through 1Q25, representing 26% of enterprise value [18] - The company has returned $665 million to shareholders during the same period, including $179 million in dividends and $486 million in share repurchases [18][15] - The current dividend yield is 2.5%, with potential for a combined yield of 4.8% when factoring in share repurchases [14][16] Challenges - High mortgage rates have risen significantly, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.8% in May 2025, making home purchases more expensive [19] - Meritage Homes' average selling price on home closings fell by 6% year-over-year in 1Q25, attributed to increased financial incentives [23] - The company's NOPAT margin decreased from 12% in 1Q24 to 8.6% in 1Q25 due to these pressures [23] Valuation Insights - At a current price of $67 per share, the market implies a permanent 30% decline in profits, despite historical growth rates of 21% compounded annually over the last five years [24] - If the company maintains historical growth rates, the stock could see a potential upside of over 40%, with a target price of $97 per share [26]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for the second quarter were $686 million, closer to the low end of guidance, primarily due to a mix of deliveries with higher-priced home deliveries slipping into future quarters [7] - Adjusted gross margin was 17.3%, just below the low end of guidance, impacted by increased incentives which rose to 10.5% [7][8] - Adjusted EBITDA was $61 million, slightly above the high end of guidance, while adjusted pretax income was $29 million, near the high end of guidance [10] - Year-over-year total revenues declined despite flat deliveries, primarily due to lower average sales prices [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Contracts for the second quarter, including domestic unconsolidated joint ventures, decreased by 7% year-over-year, with significant monthly sales volatility observed [13] - The company reported 11.2 contracts per community, which is higher than the quarterly average since 2008, despite a year-over-year decline in contracts per community [14][15] - The percentage of home buyers utilizing mortgage rate buy downs was 75%, indicating continued reliance on these incentives to combat affordability [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 12% increase in the total number of open for sale communities year-over-year, ending the quarter with 148 communities [29] - Controlled lots increased by 15% year-over-year, equating to a 7.7-year supply of controlled lots [30] - The company noted that 60.3% of communities with price increases were in better-performing markets such as Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on pace over price, resulting in an above-average number of contracts per community compared to peers, despite a challenging sales environment [16] - A strategic decision was made to burn through less profitable land parcels at lower gross margins to clear the way for recent land acquisitions that meet target return metrics [26] - The company is actively engaging with land sellers to find mutually beneficial solutions in a slow market [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed satisfaction with the quarter's performance given the difficult environment, while remaining vigilant about economic uncertainties [49] - The company expects to return to more favorable performance metrics as it replaces certain land positions with newer acquisitions that meet return targets [26] - Guidance for the next quarter assumes no adverse changes in current market conditions, with total revenues expected between $750 million and $850 million [42] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $2 billion in liquidity, within its targeted range, and has made significant progress in reducing debt and improving its balance sheet [38][40] - The company signed a memorandum of understanding with the Ministry of Housing in Saudi Arabia to expand activities and partnerships in the region [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Have you seen lower land prices on recent acquisitions? - Management indicated that land sellers are slow to adjust prices, but they are finding opportunities to replenish land supply at better returns [56] Question: What markets are yielding better results with land sellers? - Management mentioned markets such as Delaware, Virginia, Southeast Coastal Charleston, New Jersey, and Maryland as currently yielding better results [57] Question: What is the current incentive structure? - The company utilizes a mix of mortgage rate buy downs, price reductions, and other incentives depending on the delivery timeline of homes [63] Question: Is the focus still on spec building? - Management confirmed that the strategy remains focused on quick move-in homes, which allows for affordable mortgage rate buy downs [64] Question: How long will it take to clear older vintage land? - Management noted that the timeline varies by geography, with some areas already cleared out while others may take two to three years [70] Question: What are the expectations for construction costs in the back half of the year? - Management expressed optimism about maintaining or slightly reducing construction costs, barring any significant increases in lumber prices [77]

Core Insights - Landsea Homes Corporation (LSEA) reported disappointing first-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings and total revenues falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate [1][4] - The company experienced a year-over-year decline in bottom line while total revenues increased [1] Financial Performance - LSEA reported a loss per share of $0.05, which was worse than the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.03 per share; in the same quarter last year, the company had adjusted earnings per share of $0.10 [4] - Total revenues reached $310.8 million, missing the consensus mark of $320 million by 2.9%, but grew 6% year-over-year from $294 million [4] Segment Performance - Home Sales segment revenues were $299.4 million, reflecting a 2.3% increase from the prior-year quarter; the company delivered 643 new homes, up 27.3% year-over-year, with an average selling price (ASP) of $466,000, down 19.5% year-over-year [5] - Net new home orders rose 11.1% to 679 homes, valued at $317.8 million, with a cancellation rate of 9%, down from 10% a year ago [6] - Lot Sales & Other segment revenues surged 689.4% year-over-year to $11.4 million, with total lots owned or controlled by LSEA increasing to 10,516 from 10,349 a year ago [8] Margin and Cost Analysis - Home closing gross margin contracted by 190 basis points year-over-year to 13%, primarily due to higher discounts, incentives, and increased interest costs [7] Debt and Cash Position - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled $36.7 million, down from $53.3 million at the end of 2024; total debt increased to $727.5 million from $725.4 million [9] - The debt to capital ratio was 52.1%, up from 51.8% at the end of 2024, with net debt to total capital at 48.3%, an increase from 47.7% [9] Acquisition Announcement - On May 12, 2025, Landsea Homes announced a definitive agreement for acquisition by New Home Co. at $11.30 per share, representing an enterprise value of approximately $1.2 billion and a 61% premium to LSEA's closing share price on that date [11] - The acquisition is expected to be completed by early third quarter of 2025, pending customary closing conditions [12]

Core Viewpoint - LGI Homes reported solid financial results for Q1 2025 despite challenges in affordability and rate volatility affecting homebuyers' confidence [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company delivered 996 homes with an average sales price of $352,831, resulting in total revenue of $351.4 million for the first quarter [3][9]. - A one-time expense of $8.6 million related to a forward commitment incentive program was included in the financial results [3]. - Net income for the quarter was $4.0 million, translating to earnings per share of $0.17 [9][20]. Guidance and Outlook - LGI Homes maintains its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting to close between 6,200 and 7,000 homes at an average sales price between $360,000 and $370,000 [4][14]. - The company has adjusted its gross margin guidance down by 150 basis points at the low end and 100 basis points at the high end due to anticipated higher costs from tariffs [5][10]. Market Conditions - The company noted strong demand for new homes but highlighted affordability as a significant challenge for buyers [2]. - The persistent shortage of entry-level homes is seen as a societal challenge, emphasizing the need for affordable residential construction [5]. Balance Sheet Highlights - As of March 31, 2025, total liquidity was $360.0 million, including cash and cash equivalents of $57.6 million [9]. - The company had total owned and controlled lots of 67,792, with an ending backlog of 1,040 homes valued at $406.2 million [9][29]. Segment Performance - Home sales revenues by reportable segment showed the following for Q1 2025: Central ($101.1 million), Southeast ($101.7 million), Northwest ($34.2 million), West ($67.0 million), and Florida ($47.4 million) [25]. - The average sales price per home closed was $352,831, with an average community count of 148 [25]. Backlog Data - Net orders for the quarter were 1,437, with a cancellation rate of 16.3% [29]. - The ending backlog consisted of 1,040 homes, down from 1,335 homes in the same period last year [29].