Core Insights - Total US new light vehicle sales for February 2026 are projected to reach 1,183,000, reflecting a 3.8% decrease year-over-year [1] - The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new vehicle sales is expected to be 15.6 million units, down 0.6 million units from February 2025 [2] - New vehicle retail sales for February 2026 are projected at 931,400, a 4.6% decrease from February 2025 [2] Market Dynamics - Electric vehicle (EV) retail demand is depressed, with EVs expected to account for only 6.6% of retail sales, down 1.8 percentage points from a year ago [3] - Affordability pressure is significant, with the average monthly finance payment reaching $811, up $32 from a year ago [5] - The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans in February is 6.72%, a decrease of 31 basis points from a year ago [6] Future Outlook - An acceleration in sales pace is expected over the balance of 2026, starting with March, traditionally a high-volume sales month [4] - Competitive intensity is anticipated to rise as multiple automakers plan to increase their sales volume in 2026, despite total new vehicle sales being expected to remain similar to the previous year [6] - GlobalData forecasts US light vehicle sales at 16.2 million units in 2026, slightly down from 2025's level of 16.3 million [6]

Core Insights - New light vehicle sales in July 2025 are projected to reach 1.33 million units, translating to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units, a slight increase from the previous average of 15.5 million units [1][2] Group 1: Sales Projections - The sales pace is expected to improve compared to the previous two months due to the anticipated second wave of pull-ahead demand, particularly for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) before the expiration of federal EV incentives on September 30 [2][3] - Total light vehicle sales for July are estimated at 1,325,200 units, with a SAAR of 15.9 million, which is an increase from June's SAAR of 15.3 million [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The BEV share of sales in July is expected to exceed 9%, compared to a year-to-date average of 7.3% through May 2025, indicating a growing interest in electric vehicles [3] - Despite the short-term boost in BEV sales, the expiration of federal incentives is expected to create long-term challenges for BEV growth, leading to anticipated volatility in month-to-month sales and market share [2][3] Group 3: Industry Context - The ongoing development of BEV sales faces uncertainty, particularly with the implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) potentially tempering long-term demand growth [3] - Price-conscious consumers are likely to act before the end of Q3 to take advantage of existing incentives, which may help push overall new vehicle volumes, albeit to a lesser extent than earlier in the year [2]