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Oracle's AI Cloud Surge: From Summer Glory to a Dip Worth Buying
ZACKS· 2025-12-09 14:01
Core Insights - Oracle's stock experienced significant volatility in 2025, initially declining due to tariff-related issues before rising on cloud momentum and strong fiscal performance [1][2] - The company's Q1 FY26 earnings report revealed a dramatic increase in total remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $455 billion, a 359% increase, driven by cloud bookings and AI-related deals [3] - Despite a peak stock price of $345 in September, shares fell over 40% due to concerns over financing for a rumored $300 billion deal with OpenAI and broader market conditions [5][6][8] Financial Performance - Oracle's cloud revenue grew by 27% in the fiscal fourth quarter, contributing to a 30% year-to-date stock gain [2] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming fiscal second-quarter report is $1.63, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, with revenues projected at $16.15 billion, up 14.8% [10] Market Position and Strategy - Oracle is strategically positioned in the enterprise AI infrastructure space, with its OCI Gen2 cloud offering multicloud interoperability and sovereign cloud capabilities [11] - Partnerships with Nvidia, AMD, and Ampere, along with supercluster deployments, indicate strong demand translating into revenue [12] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The recent stock correction has lowered Oracle's forward P/E ratio to approximately 30 times, making it more attractive compared to the 40+ times seen at its September peak [12] - The current dip in stock price is viewed as a potential buying opportunity, with expectations for a rebound driven by cloud RPO growth and large AI contracts [9][13]