Core Viewpoint - Transocean Ltd. is set to report its fourth quarter 2025 earnings and a fleet status report on February 19, 2026, after market close [1] Group 1: Earnings Report and Teleconference - The earnings report and fleet status will be released after the close of trading on February 19, 2026 [1] - A teleconference will be held on February 20, 2026, at 9 a.m. EST, where participants can join by calling +1 785-424-1619 [2] - A listen-only simulcast of the teleconference will be available on the company's website, with a replay accessible after 12 p.m. EST on the same day [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Transocean is a leading provider of offshore contract drilling services, focusing on technically demanding sectors such as ultra-deepwater and harsh environment drilling [4] - The company operates the highest specification floating offshore drilling fleet globally, consisting of 27 mobile offshore drilling units, including 20 ultra-deepwater floaters and seven harsh environment floaters [5]

Key Points Hara Capital purchased 173,597 shares of Noble Corporation during the fourth quarter. The position had a $4.9 million value at quarter end. This new position represents 2.7% of Hara Capital's 13F reportable assets under management These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Hara Capital Loads Up Noble With 174K Shares Bought On Jan. 15, Hara Capital LLC disclosed a new position in Noble Corporation (NYSE:NE), acquiring 173,597 shares in the fourth quarter. Noble operate ...

Core Insights - Transocean Ltd.'s shares have increased by 43.4% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the Oil & Gas Drilling sub-industry and the broader energy sector [1][8] - The company has emerged as a turnaround story, enhancing investor confidence through improved financial metrics and operational performance [3][4] Financial Performance - Transocean reduced its gross debt by approximately $1.2 billion, improving its balance sheet and lowering refinancing risk [5] - The company reported a debt to capitalization ratio of 37.5%, significantly better than Nabors Industries at 71.4% [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Transocean's 2025 earnings is projected at 5 cents per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 119.2% [12] Revenue and Backlog - Transocean anticipates contract drilling revenues of $3.8-$3.95 billion for 2026, with about 89% already secured under firm contracts [6] - Recent contract wins, including a six-well contract in Australia and a rig contract extension, have added approximately $298 million to its backlog [6] Market Dynamics - Management expects ultra-deepwater rig utilization to exceed 90% by late 2026, driven by increased offshore investment [9] - Fleet rationalization efforts are focused on retiring older rigs, which supports healthier industry dynamics and operating margins [9] Competitive Landscape - Compared to peers, Transocean's stock performance has outpaced Precision Drilling and Patterson-UTI, although Nabors Industries has shown even stronger growth [1][13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Precision Drilling and Patterson-UTI indicates significant declines in earnings, contrasting with Transocean's growth outlook [13] Challenges - Despite debt reductions, Transocean will still exit 2025 with approximately $5.9 billion in debt, which poses financial risks [10] - The company faces near-term pressure on day rates, particularly for lower-specification rigs, which could hinder margin expansion [10][16] - Ongoing capital intensity and exposure to volatile commodity cycles remain significant challenges for the company [11][16]

Core Viewpoint - Transocean Ltd. has secured a contract and an extension for two of its drilling rigs, amounting to approximately $168 million in firm backlog [1]. Group 1: Contract Awards - The Deepwater Mykonos rig has been awarded a contract with bp for an estimated 302-day campaign, expected to begin in Q3 2026, contributing approximately $120 million to the backlog, excluding additional services and mobilization costs [2]. - In Norway, three one-well options have been exercised for the Transocean Enabler, adding an incremental 105 days of work, which is expected to contribute approximately $48 million to the backlog, committing the rig through September 2027 [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Transocean is a leading international provider of offshore contract drilling services, specializing in technically demanding sectors, particularly ultra-deepwater and harsh environment drilling [4]. - The company operates a fleet of 27 mobile offshore drilling units, which includes 20 ultra-deepwater floaters and seven harsh environment floaters [5].

Core Viewpoint - Roderick Mackenzie, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Transocean Ltd., sold 53,769 shares, representing about 18% of his direct holdings, raising questions about whether investors should follow suit given the company's recent stock performance and financial results [1][2][8]. Company Overview - Transocean Ltd. is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a focus on ultra-deepwater and harsh environment operations, serving integrated energy companies, national oil companies, and independent oil and gas producers globally [4][5]. - As of November 4, 2025, the company's stock price was $3.90, with a market capitalization of $4.93 billion and a total revenue of $3.87 billion over the trailing twelve months (TTM) [3]. Recent Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted net income of $62 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.06 for the third quarter, with improved drilling revenue due to better rig utilization and revenue efficiency [8]. - Transocean's stock has underperformed the S&P 1500 Energy Sector index, showing a one-year total return of -11.56% compared to the index's nearly flat performance [2][9]. Recent Developments - Following the share sale, Transocean announced a six-well contract in Australia worth $130 million, which may present a potential opportunity for investors interested in the energy sector [9].

Core Points - Transocean Ltd. has secured a six-well contract in Australia for the Deepwater Skyros, expected to start in Q1 2027, contributing approximately $130 million to the backlog [1] - The contract includes priced options that could extend the drillship's operations in Australia into early 2030 if fully exercised [1] Company Overview - Transocean is a leading international provider of offshore contract drilling services, focusing on ultra-deepwater and harsh environment drilling [2] - The company operates the highest specification floating offshore drilling fleet globally, consisting of 27 mobile offshore drilling units, including 20 ultra-deepwater floaters and seven harsh environment floaters [3]

Group 1: Fund Performance - Night Watch Investment Management reported a 4.28% net appreciation in its fund LP for Q3 2025, with a year-to-date performance of 25.88% [1] - The portfolio continued to perform strongly during the quarter, coinciding with a robust market recovery [1] Group 2: Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL) Overview - Valaris Limited, an offshore contract drilling services provider, achieved a one-month return of 7.04% and a 52-week gain of 34.01%, closing at $59.93 per share with a market capitalization of $4.268 billion on December 5, 2025 [2] - Valaris Limited was held by 60 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 57 in the previous quarter [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Night Watch Investment Management has fully exited its energy positions, including Valaris Limited, due to a pause in offshore spending that began in 2024, with expectations for a resumption not occurring until 2027 at the earliest [3] - The company noted a modest loss of 2.67% on its positions in Valaris, Noble Energy, and TDW, marking energy as the only significant detractor from performance since inception [3] - While acknowledging Valaris Limited's potential, the company believes that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Core Thesis - Transocean Ltd. presents a compelling investment case driven by strategic capital structure improvements and favorable supply-demand dynamics in the offshore drilling industry [2][4]. Capital Structure Improvements - The company has reduced its total debt-to-equity ratio below 100% and lowered total debt-to-EBITDA over the past 24 months [2]. - A recent $500 million private bond issuance and equity raise are aimed at redeeming high-coupon legacy and secured notes, further deleveraging the balance sheet [3]. Shareholder Returns - The improvements in capital structure position Transocean to shift cash toward shareholder returns, including dividends and buybacks, which are currently limited by mandatory debt amortization [3]. Industry Dynamics - The offshore drilling industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with high-spec drillers becoming increasingly scarce due to the scrapping of idle rigs and rising offshore capital expenditures by International Oil Companies (IOCs) [4]. - Key growth regions include Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, Guyana, Nigeria, Ghana, and Namibia, referred to as the "Golden Triangle" [4]. Investment Opportunity - Recent share price volatility, including a 16% drop on the day of the capital raise, presents a tactical entry opportunity for investors [5]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural improvements and industry catalysts, making it an attractive investment in the offshore sector [5]. Historical Performance - The stock price has appreciated approximately 38.24% since previous bullish coverage, indicating strong market fundamentals [6].

Core Insights - Noble has expanded its backlog to $7 billion, yet its stock performance remains weak, with a notable investor, Canyon Capital Advisors, reducing its stake by $2 million [1][2][6] Company Overview - Noble is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a global fleet designed for complex exploration and production activities, primarily generating revenue through long-term contracts with energy companies [5] - The company reported a total revenue of $3.4 billion and a net income of $226.7 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM), with a dividend yield of 6.5% [4] Recent Developments - Canyon Capital Advisors reduced its stake in Noble by 158,607 shares, leaving them with approximately 1.3 million shares valued at $36.9 million as of September 30 [2][7] - Despite a third-quarter net loss of $21 million, Noble generated strong free cash flow of $139 million and secured $740 million in new contract awards since August, contributing to the increased backlog [8] Market Performance - As of the latest market close, Noble shares were priced at $31.35, reflecting a 6% decline over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 13% gain during the same period [3][4] Investor Sentiment - Canyon Capital's decision to trim its position in Noble suggests a more selective approach to deepwater exposure, despite the company's improving backlog and cash generation [6][8]

Core Insights - Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC acquired over $20 million worth of Noble stock, increasing its position significantly in the third quarter of 2025 [1][9] - Noble now represents 3.7% of the firm's 13F assets under management, with a total holding of 1,081,635 shares valued at $30.59 million as of September 30, 2025 [2][3] Company Overview - Noble is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a market capitalization of $4.64 billion and revenue of $3.45 billion for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4][5] - The company reported a net income of $226.73 million and has a dividend yield of 6.7% [4] Performance Metrics - As of November 7, 2025, Noble shares were priced at $29.23, with a one-year return of -9.1%, underperforming the S&P 500 by 22.8 percentage points [3][10] - The firm's acquisition of nearly 700,000 shares during the third quarter more than tripled its position in Noble, making it the 11th-largest holding for the firm [9] Business Model - Noble provides offshore contract drilling services through a fleet of mobile offshore drilling units, generating revenue primarily from long-term contracts with oil and gas companies [8] - The company serves major integrated oil companies, national oil companies, and independent exploration and production firms globally [8]