February 23, 2026 05:58 AM GMT The Oil Manual | Europe Iran Scenarios Oil is rallying on risk, not tightness: physical signals eased as options skew surged. We map four Iran scenarios—from premium unwind to transit impairment—and keep our base case for Brent drifting toward ~$60 as risk premia fade and balances soften. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Freight have surged, partly due to rising Middle East tensions | M February 23, 2026 05:58 AM GMT | | Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | The Oil Manual Europe | Morgan Stan ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the dynamics surrounding crude oil prices and geopolitical influences affecting supply and demand. Core Insights and Arguments - **Brent Crude Price Movement**: The Brent crude price increased by $3 per barrel due to ongoing US-Iran discussions, despite the US imposing sanctions on more Iranian oil tankers and advising US ships to avoid Iranian waters [3][4][6]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The Polymarket prediction market indicates a ~56% chance of the US striking Iran by June 30, 2025, leading to increased market premiums for insurance against oil price spikes [3][4]. - **Global Stock Changes**: Global visible stocks built by only 0.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in January, a significant deceleration from the previous 1.4 mb/d builds over the last 90 days. Total global stocks, including "invisible," built by 1.6 mb/d in January, which is 2.0 mb/d lower than expectations due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and the US [3][4][6]. - **Oil on Water**: There has been a sharp increase in oil on water, likely due to buyers securing oil amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty [3][4]. - **Sanctioned Oil Imports**: Imports of oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela increased by 0.8 mb/d (or 10%) over the last two weeks, although sanctioned oil on water remains elevated [3][4]. - **Venezuela's Oil Exports**: Venezuela's crude exports reached a 7-year high as Asian purchases increased, despite being 0.2 mb/d below last November levels [3][4]. - **Russia's Oil Production**: Russia's oil production and total exports rebounded in January, despite a 1.2 mb/d year-to-date decline in exports to India and China due to significant redirection [3][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Investor Behavior**: There has been a rotation towards hard assets, including commodities, which has contributed approximately $6 per barrel to the rise in crude prices year-to-date [7][4]. - **Supply Disruptions**: January supply disruptions are expected to be temporary, with oil exports from the CPC terminal likely remaining 0.3 mb/d below normal levels in February [7][4]. - **Long-to-Short Oil Ratio**: The long-to-short oil ratio increased to 2.6, placing it at the 89th percentile in a sample from May 1, 2024, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [13][4]. - **OECD Commercial Stocks**: OECD commercial stocks decreased to 2,804 million barrels (mb), which is 38 mb below the end-of-January forecast of 2,842 mb [16][4]. Conclusion - The oil market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, and supply disruptions from key oil-producing countries. The dynamics of oil imports and exports, especially from sanctioned countries, are critical to understanding current price movements and future trends in the oil industry.

Summary of the Oil Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the oil industry, particularly the dynamics surrounding OPEC+ production decisions and global oil supply and demand forecasts. Key Points and Arguments OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to raise required production by 0.14 million barrels per day (mb/d) for November, consistent with previous expectations [2][10] - The group remains focused on market conditions, indicating a cautious approach to production increases [10] Price Forecasts - The Brent/WTI price forecast remains unchanged at $64/$60 for Q4 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026 [2][18] - The forecast suggests that strong supply will likely lead to lower oil prices over the next year [18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A global oil surplus is expected to average 2.0 mb/d from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, driven by a 4.1 mb/d increase in global supply [2][21] - Global demand growth has been nudged up to 1.0 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026, reflecting stronger demand forecasts [35] Global Supply Changes - The increase in global supply is attributed to record-high US crude and natural gas liquids (NGL) production, alongside an upgrade in Iraq's supply, which offsets a downgrade in Russian production [26][30] - US crude and NGL supply reached all-time highs in July 2025, with a smaller expected decline of 0.3 mb/d by December 2026 [27] OECD Stock Builds - OECD commercial stocks are expected to absorb over 30% of the global builds in 2025-2026, with a projected increase of 0.65 mb/d [45] - The analysis indicates that the pace of builds in global stocks is accelerating, which is expected to impact oil prices negatively [51] Price Risk Assessment - Risks to the price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly to the upside, particularly due to potential declines in Russian production [56][61] - Scenarios include a potential drop in Russian supply to 8.5 mb/d by December 2026, which could raise Brent/WTI prices to $70/$66 [57] Conclusion - The analysis suggests that while the oil market is currently stable, various factors, including OPEC+ production decisions, global supply dynamics, and geopolitical risks, could significantly influence future price movements and market conditions [56][61] Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring global visible stock builds, which have accelerated recently, indicating potential shifts in supply-demand balance [4][12] - The analysis also emphasizes the role of geopolitical factors, particularly concerning Russian production and its impact on global oil prices [30][34]

Summary of OPEC+ September Supply Hike Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the actions and policies of OPEC+ regarding crude oil production levels and market dynamics. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production Increase Announcement**: OPEC+ announced a production increase of 0.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) for September, aligning with previous expectations and the pace set in August [2][3][4] 2. **Completion of Previous Cuts**: This increase will fully unwind the 2.2 mb/d of voluntary cuts previously implemented, along with a 0.3 mb/d increase in required production from the UAE [2][4] 3. **Cumulative Supply Increase**: The expected cumulative increase in OPEC+ crude supply from March to September is projected to reach 1.7 mb/d, which is approximately two-thirds of the joint quota increase [2][4] 4. **Geopolitical and Economic Factors**: OPEC+ policy remains flexible due to geopolitical uncertainties, and it is assumed that production levels will remain unchanged after September unless significant supply disruptions occur [2][7] 5. **Price Forecast**: The price forecast for Brent crude is maintained at an average of $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026, with noted risks from geopolitical pressures and economic conditions [2][18] 6. **OECD Stock Builds**: There is an expectation of an acceleration in OECD commercial stock builds, which could impact OPEC+ production decisions moving forward [9][17] 7. **Supply Growth Outside OPEC+**: Strong production growth outside of OPEC+ is anticipated, with an expected rise of 1.75 mb/d this year, limiting the room for further OPEC+ production increases [10][11] 8. **Risks to Price Forecast**: Upside risks to the price forecast are associated with pressures on Russian and Iranian oil supplies, while downside risks stem from rising US tariffs and economic data suggesting a potential recession [19][20] Additional Important Content 1. **Production Contributions**: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to contribute significantly to the production increase, accounting for 60% and 20% of the ramp-up, respectively [4] 2. **Compensation Cuts**: The translation rate from required to actual production is expected to improve as compensation commitments decrease over time [4] 3. **Market Fundamentals**: The supply increase is motivated by a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, as indicated by low oil inventories [3] 4. **Future OPEC+ Meetings**: The next meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled for September 7, which will be crucial for future production decisions [13] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the OPEC+ conference call, highlighting the industry's current state, production strategies, and market forecasts.