Alcohol Industry Insights - 54% of Americans drink alcohol, marking an all-time low compared to 68%-71% in the 1970s and early 80s, raising questions about whether this is a secular trend or a phase, particularly among Gen Z [1] - Alcohol consumption has historically fluctuated due to health concerns, with companies like Brown-Forman and Diageo experiencing new 52-week lows, indicating a decline in alcohol consumption [2][4] - The average number of drinks per adult per week in the U.S. has remained stable between 10 and 12 for decades, only slightly below its 2021 peak, suggesting that regular drinkers maintain their consumption patterns despite market softness [10] Demographic Trends - From 2023 to 2025, the share of drinkers in households earning less than $40,000 fell by 14 percentage points to 39%, indicating affordability issues may be influencing drinking habits [7][8] - The decline in drinking among higher-income households may be attributed to health concerns or a reset of drinking norms after excessive consumption during COVID [9] Company Performance: Brown-Forman - Brown-Forman has faced challenges, including a 5% decline in sales and a 14% drop in earnings per share in Q2 2026, with expectations of low single-digit declines for the remainder of the year [21] - Analysts project Brown-Forman to earn $1.65 per share in 2026, trading at 15.4 times this estimate, with an enterprise value of $14.42 billion, indicating a more favorable valuation compared to Wayfair [22] Company Performance: Wayfair - Wayfair's stock has increased by 143% over the past 12 months, but the company has a poor history of profitability, with only six profitable quarters since going public in 2014 [13][16] - In Q3 2025, Wayfair reported a loss of $99 million, which is $25 million higher than the loss in Q3 2024, highlighting ongoing financial struggles [18] Investment Considerations - The comparison between Brown-Forman and Wayfair suggests that despite current challenges, Brown-Forman is viewed as a more stable investment due to its history of profitability and dividend payments, while Wayfair is seen as chasing an uncertain future [22]