Core Insights - H&R Block is set to announce its fiscal fourth quarter earnings on August 12, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings of $2.83 per share and revenue of $1.07 billion, indicating a 50% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $7.4 billion, with the last twelve months' revenue at $3.7 billion, operational profit at $808 million, and net income at $564 million [2] - Historical trends show that H&R Block shares often experience a boost after earnings releases, with an average one-day gain of 7.6% and peaks reaching as high as 20% [2] Earnings Performance - The upcoming Q4 earnings report is critical as it coincides with the peak of tax season, where assisted filings and last-minute electronic submissions can significantly influence results [2] - Management has reiterated its full-year guidance, focusing on growth within its DIY tax-filing platform and Wave small-business services [2] Historical Returns - Over the last five years, H&R Block has recorded 20 earnings data points, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 50% of the time, though this ratio falls to 36% when considering the last three years [7] - The median of the 10 positive returns is 7.6%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -5.2% [7] Correlation and Strategy - Understanding the correlations between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can provide a strategy for traders, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show high correlation [8] - The performance of peers can also impact H&R Block's stock reaction after earnings announcements, with market adjustments potentially occurring prior to the earnings disclosure [9]