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NBR Stock Up 11.4% in a Month: Should Investors Hold or Move On?
ZACKS· 2025-10-06 14:26
Core Insights - Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) is one of the largest land-drilling contractors globally, focusing on oil, gas, and geothermal drilling operations. The company's shares have increased by approximately 11.4% recently, raising questions about the sustainability of this positive trend [1][2]. Price Performance & Estimates - In the past month, Nabors Industries' shares outperformed the Oil & Gas Drilling sub-industry, which gained 4%, and the broader oil and energy sector, which rose by 3.2%. Comparatively, peers like Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. saw a decline of 1.9%, while Transocean Ltd. and Precision Drilling Corporation had gains of 9.8% and 2.3%, respectively [3][8]. - For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a significant narrowing of losses for Nabors Industries from $20.28 per share a year ago to $4.86, indicating a 76% year-over-year improvement. Revenue is expected to reach $3.2 billion, reflecting a 10.2% year-over-year increase [5][9]. Factors Supporting Growth - Nabors Industries has achieved record-setting technology milestones with its PACE® series rigs, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs, which strengthens its competitive position. The introduction of the PACE-X Ultra X33 rig is expected to revolutionize shale exploration in South Texas [10]. - The company has prioritized debt reduction, generating $41 million in adjusted free cash flow in Q2 2025, a turnaround from negative cash flow in Q1. Nabors plans to use $250 million from a recent notes offering for further debt reduction [11]. - A strategic divestiture of Quail Tools for $600 million has reduced net debt by over 25% and is expected to save $50 million annually in interest, enhancing financial flexibility and shareholder value [12]. - International growth opportunities are significant, particularly in the Middle East and Latin America, with over 25 rig deployment opportunities identified. The SANAD joint venture in Saudi Arabia is expanding, providing long-term revenue visibility [13]. Challenges Facing the Company - Nabors Industries faces challenges with customer concentration, particularly with Pemex in Mexico, where payment delays have been significant. This situation could impact liquidity and earnings [14][15]. - Geopolitical and market volatility pose risks, especially in regions like Saudi Arabia and Argentina, where client slowdowns and project delays could affect performance [16]. - The company remains heavily reliant on the SANAD joint venture for growth, which is subject to Saudi Aramco's capital spending plans. Any slowdown in Aramco's expansion could negatively impact Nabors' international revenues [17]. - Nabors Industries has a long-term debt of $2.7 billion, with a total debt-to-total capital ratio of 80.7%. High interest expenses limit financial flexibility, making the company vulnerable to credit market conditions [18]. Conclusion - Nabors Industries' stock has shown strong performance relative to peers, with expected revenue and earnings improvements in 2025. The company's technological advancements and strategic debt reduction efforts position it favorably for future growth. However, high debt levels and customer concentration issues present risks that need to be managed effectively [19].