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Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Financeยท 2025-09-16 16:14
Core Thesis - Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) is undergoing a significant transformation after exiting its Global Ecommerce segment, which incurred nearly $740 million in losses from 2022 to 2024, setting the stage for a potential turnaround [2][4]. Business Segments - PBI operates two main businesses: SendTech, which is experiencing structural decline due to falling postal volumes, and Presort, which has shown steady annual revenue growth of 4-5% since 2021, with EBITDA expanding over 20% annually [3]. - Presort has become the resilient growth engine for the company, leveraging partnerships with USPS to capture higher revenue per piece despite declining mail volumes [3]. Financial Outlook - PBI anticipates 2025 revenue of approximately $1.9 billion and free cash flow between $330 million and $370 million, resulting in a P/FCF of just 6x and a yield of 13% [4]. - The company is under new leadership with CEO Kurt Wolf, who has a compensation structure aligned with shareholder interests, and has initiated $90 million in buybacks in the first half of 2025, with authorization expanded to $400 million [4][5]. Strategic Initiatives - PBI is exploring value unlocks from PB Bank, which holds customer deposits and issues loans, potentially through a transaction similar to Harley-Davidson's [5]. - Despite the risks associated with SendTech's decline, the stability and strong cash generation from Presort, along with a management team invested in the company's success, present a compelling investment opportunity [5]. Market Performance - The stock price of PBI was trading at $12.00 as of September 3rd, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 15.00 and 8.95, respectively [1]. - Since the previous bullish coverage, the stock price has appreciated approximately 26%, reflecting positive restructuring progress [6].